Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by execution risks despite CEO Elon Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30k consumer deliveries by year-end. The first production unit rolled off Giga Texas in mid-February, with mass production ramping in April, but historical delays in Tesla's autonomous timelines—coupled with pending regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)—fuel doubt on achieving affordable pricing amid supply chain pressures and scaling challenges. Key catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings for volume updates and FSD safety data releases, which could shift sentiment if milestones like pre-orders or certifications materialize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$32,988 Vol.
$32,988 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$32,988 Vol.
$32,988 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by execution risks despite CEO Elon Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30k consumer deliveries by year-end. The first production unit rolled off Giga Texas in mid-February, with mass production ramping in April, but historical delays in Tesla's autonomous timelines—coupled with pending regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)—fuel doubt on achieving affordable pricing amid supply chain pressures and scaling challenges. Key catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings for volume updates and FSD safety data releases, which could shift sentiment if milestones like pre-orders or certifications materialize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$32,988Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by execution risks despite CEO Elon Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30k consumer deliveries by year-end. The first production unit rolled off Giga Texas in mid-February, with mass production ramping in April, but historical delays in Tesla's autonomous timelines—coupled with pending regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)—fuel doubt on achieving affordable pricing amid supply chain pressures and scaling challenges. Key catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings for volume updates and FSD safety data releases, which could shift sentiment if milestones like pre-orders or certifications materialize.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,988Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70% implied probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by execution risks despite CEO Elon Musk's February reaffirmation of sub-$30k consumer deliveries by year-end. The first production unit rolled off Giga Texas in mid-February, with mass production ramping in April, but historical delays in Tesla's autonomous timelines—coupled with pending regulatory approvals for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)—fuel doubt on achieving affordable pricing amid supply chain pressures and scaling challenges. Key catalysts include Q2 2026 earnings for volume updates and FSD safety data releases, which could shift sentiment if milestones like pre-orders or certifications materialize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes