Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google (95.3% implied probability) to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, 2026, reflecting Gemini's entrenched position behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok in style-neutral Elo rankings that prioritize substance over verbose formatting. This stability stems from Google's February Gemini 3.1 Pro release, which delivered benchmark gains in reasoning and coding without style inflation, amid no frontier model launches in the past week. Key challengers like xAI (2.7%) could disrupt via a surprise Grok tweak before snapshot, or leaderboard recounts from ongoing battles, though high battle volume (millions) limits volatility near resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGoogle 95.3%
xAI 2.7%
Anthropic 1.7%
Z.ai <1%
$369,227 Vol.
$369,227 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
95%
xAI
3%
Anthropic
2%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 95.3%
xAI 2.7%
Anthropic 1.7%
Z.ai <1%
$369,227 Vol.
$369,227 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$37,608 Vol.
95%
xAI
$30,187 Vol.
3%
Anthropic
$33,914 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$130,258 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,536 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$23,260 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$30,683 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$11,628 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google (95.3% implied probability) to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, 2026, reflecting Gemini's entrenched position behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok in style-neutral Elo rankings that prioritize substance over verbose formatting. This stability stems from Google's February Gemini 3.1 Pro release, which delivered benchmark gains in reasoning and coding without style inflation, amid no frontier model launches in the past week. Key challengers like xAI (2.7%) could disrupt via a surprise Grok tweak before snapshot, or leaderboard recounts from ongoing battles, though high battle volume (millions) limits volatility near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$369,227Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google (95.3% implied probability) to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, 2026, reflecting Gemini's entrenched position behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok in style-neutral Elo rankings that prioritize substance over verbose formatting. This stability stems from Google's February Gemini 3.1 Pro release, which delivered benchmark gains in reasoning and coding without style inflation, amid no frontier model launches in the past week. Key challengers like xAI (2.7%) could disrupt via a surprise Grok tweak before snapshot, or leaderboard recounts from ongoing battles, though high battle volume (millions) limits volatility near resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$369,227Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs Google (95.3% implied probability) to hold the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard by March 31, 2026, reflecting Gemini's entrenched position behind Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and xAI's Grok in style-neutral Elo rankings that prioritize substance over verbose formatting. This stability stems from Google's February Gemini 3.1 Pro release, which delivered benchmark gains in reasoning and coding without style inflation, amid no frontier model launches in the past week. Key challengers like xAI (2.7%) could disrupt via a surprise Grok tweak before snapshot, or leaderboard recounts from ongoing battles, though high battle volume (millions) limits volatility near resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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