Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 96.8%
xAI 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$477,740 Vol.
$477,740 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
<1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 96.8%
xAI 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$477,740 Vol.
$477,740 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$44,015 Vol.
97%
xAI
$18,171 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$89,102 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$71,731 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$54,052 Vol.
<1%
$57,581 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$22,537 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$109,956 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$10,594 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$477,740Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$477,740Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic with a 95.7% implied probability for possessing the #2 AI model by end of March, driven by Claude 3 Opus's rapid ascent on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard following its March 4 release. The model's standout performance in user-blinded evaluations—excelling in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks—propelled it past rivals like OpenAI's GPT-4 variants and Google's Gemini, securing a firm #2 position behind the leader amid "Style Control On" metrics. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's competitive edge in large language model capabilities, validated by third-party benchmarks. Realistic challenges include a last-minute leaderboard reshuffle from new model iterations or evaluation disputes, though traders see slim odds for upsets from laggards like xAI or DeepSeek given their nascent deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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