Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 has propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1,991, driving trader consensus to a 53.4% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by June 30, as the model dominates coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks ahead of rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 27.5% with strong reasoning capabilities (Elo ~1,944), bolstered by expanded compute partnerships, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 12% amid perceived slower iteration. xAI's Grok hype has faded to 3%, reflecting benchmark shortfalls. Traders eye potential June frontier model launches from OpenAI or Google DeepMind as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested race.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 53.4%
Google 28%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 3.0%
$3,524,313 Vol.
$3,524,313 Vol.

Anthropic
53%

28%

OpenAI
13%

xAI
3%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 53.4%
Google 28%
OpenAI 13%
xAI 3.0%
$3,524,313 Vol.
$3,524,313 Vol.

Anthropic
53%

28%

OpenAI
13%

xAI
3%

Meta
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's recent release of Claude Opus 4.7 has propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score around 1,991, driving trader consensus to a 53.4% implied probability of retaining the best AI model by June 30, as the model dominates coding, reasoning, and overall benchmarks ahead of rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 27.5% with strong reasoning capabilities (Elo ~1,944), bolstered by expanded compute partnerships, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 12% amid perceived slower iteration. xAI's Grok hype has faded to 3%, reflecting benchmark shortfalls. Traders eye potential June frontier model launches from OpenAI or Google DeepMind as key catalysts that could shift the closely contested race.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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