Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 63.1%
Google 23%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 2.4%
$2,808,795 Vol.
$2,808,795 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
63%
23%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 63.1%
Google 23%
OpenAI 11%
xAI 2.4%
$2,808,795 Vol.
$2,808,795 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$564,338 Vol.
63%
$311,870 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$95,254 Vol.
11%
xAI
$835,903 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$186,074 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$165,347 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$107,948 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$283,789 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$120,193 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$138,077 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,808,795Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,808,795Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, has surged to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with an Elo score exceeding rivals, fueling trader consensus at 63.9% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June. Excelling in benchmarks like GPQA diamond (59.4% accuracy), MATH (71.1%), and coding tasks, it outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o (9.5%) and Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro (22.5%), which trail despite ongoing refinements. Lower odds on xAI (2.4%) and DeepSeek (1.5%) stem from niche progress without broad leaderboard dominance. With the month-end approaching, potential surprise releases from leaders could alter positioning, but current skin-in-the-game sentiment favors Anthropic's momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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