Trader sentiment leans bearish for xAI's Grok posting a competitive score on the grueling FrontierMath benchmark by June 30, with market-implied odds below 20%, driven by the test's extreme difficulty—even OpenAI's o1-preview tops out at 1.9% accuracy on PhD-level math proofs. Grok-2 currently scores under 0.5%, per recent leaderboard submissions following the benchmark's October launch by Epoch AI and partners. xAI's edge lies in its massive Memphis supercluster (100,000 H100 GPUs), fueling Grok-3's December release and potential iterations, but scaling laws' limits and rivals like Anthropic's Claude temper expectations. Watch Grok-3 evals and Q2 2025 updates for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour25 %+
77%
30 %+
75%
40 %+
60%
50 %+
27%
$0.00 Vol.
25 %+
77%
30 %+
75%
40 %+
60%
50 %+
27%
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment leans bearish for xAI's Grok posting a competitive score on the grueling FrontierMath benchmark by June 30, with market-implied odds below 20%, driven by the test's extreme difficulty—even OpenAI's o1-preview tops out at 1.9% accuracy on PhD-level math proofs. Grok-2 currently scores under 0.5%, per recent leaderboard submissions following the benchmark's October launch by Epoch AI and partners. xAI's edge lies in its massive Memphis supercluster (100,000 H100 GPUs), fueling Grok-3's December release and potential iterations, but scaling laws' limits and rivals like Anthropic's Claude temper expectations. Watch Grok-3 evals and Q2 2025 updates for resolution catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes