Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 45% implied probability amid current tops like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants leading reasoning and coding benchmarks via advanced chain-of-thought techniques. Recent surges from 20+ frontier large language model releases since January—including GPT-5.3 Codex, DeepSeek V3.2, and Qwen3-Max-Thinking—have plateaued scores near 1500, fueling doubts on scaling laws amid compute constraints and diminishing returns. Anthropic's edge stems from leaked previews of Claude Mythos as their "most powerful" model yet, positioning it for a potential breakthrough, while OpenAI and Google trail on slower iteration cycles; watch Q2 earnings and developer conferences for release catalysts that could shift the race.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun en 2026 45%
Anthropic 32%
OpenAI 9%
Google 9%
$34,181 Vol.
$34,181 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
45%
Anthropic
32%
OpenAI
9%
9%
DeepSeek
4%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Aucun en 2026 45%
Anthropic 32%
OpenAI 9%
Google 9%
$34,181 Vol.
$34,181 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Aucun en 2026
$5,836 Vol.
45%
Anthropic
$4,677 Vol.
32%
OpenAI
$5,222 Vol.
9%
$5,123 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$2,591 Vol.
4%
xAI
$4,088 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$2,245 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,179 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,219 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 45% implied probability amid current tops like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants leading reasoning and coding benchmarks via advanced chain-of-thought techniques. Recent surges from 20+ frontier large language model releases since January—including GPT-5.3 Codex, DeepSeek V3.2, and Qwen3-Max-Thinking—have plateaued scores near 1500, fueling doubts on scaling laws amid compute constraints and diminishing returns. Anthropic's edge stems from leaked previews of Claude Mythos as their "most powerful" model yet, positioning it for a potential breakthrough, while OpenAI and Google trail on slower iteration cycles; watch Q2 earnings and developer conferences for release catalysts that could shift the race.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$34,181Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 45% implied probability amid current tops like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants leading reasoning and coding benchmarks via advanced chain-of-thought techniques. Recent surges from 20+ frontier large language model releases since January—including GPT-5.3 Codex, DeepSeek V3.2, and Qwen3-Max-Thinking—have plateaued scores near 1500, fueling doubts on scaling laws amid compute constraints and diminishing returns. Anthropic's edge stems from leaked previews of Claude Mythos as their "most powerful" model yet, positioning it for a potential breakthrough, while OpenAI and Google trail on slower iteration cycles; watch Q2 earnings and developer conferences for release catalysts that could shift the race.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$34,181Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around reaching 1550 Elo on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, with "None" at 45% implied probability amid current tops like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro at 1505 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants leading reasoning and coding benchmarks via advanced chain-of-thought techniques. Recent surges from 20+ frontier large language model releases since January—including GPT-5.3 Codex, DeepSeek V3.2, and Qwen3-Max-Thinking—have plateaued scores near 1500, fueling doubts on scaling laws amid compute constraints and diminishing returns. Anthropic's edge stems from leaked previews of Claude Mythos as their "most powerful" model yet, positioning it for a potential breakthrough, while OpenAI and Google trail on slower iteration cycles; watch Q2 earnings and developer conferences for release catalysts that could shift the race.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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