Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with "None in 2026" at 42% slightly edging Anthropic's 40% implied probability for first reaching 1550 Elo on LMSYS Chatbot Arena, amid top models clustered around 1505 as of late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 leads with 1504-1505 Elo via superior reasoning and coherence from dense transformer architectures, bolstered by Sonnet 4.6's million-token context, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 1503 leveraging sparse mixture-of-experts efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to inconsistent benchmark jumps, despite rapid iterations like GPT-5.4. March's barrage of releases—Qwen 3.5, DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5—accelerated gains but highlighted scaling hurdles like compute costs and data scarcity, fostering doubt on breaching 1550 before year-end without architectural breakthroughs; watch for Anthropic's rumored Claude Mythos or Google Deep Think previews.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 40%
Aucun en 2026 36%
Google 11%
OpenAI 8%
$24,143 Vol.
$24,143 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Anthropic
40%
Aucun en 2026
42%
11%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Alibaba
2%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 40%
Aucun en 2026 36%
Google 11%
OpenAI 8%
$24,143 Vol.
$24,143 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Anthropic
$2,773 Vol.
40%
Aucun en 2026
$4,193 Vol.
42%
$3,868 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$3,840 Vol.
8%
xAI
$3,211 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$1,772 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$1,619 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$1,631 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with "None in 2026" at 42% slightly edging Anthropic's 40% implied probability for first reaching 1550 Elo on LMSYS Chatbot Arena, amid top models clustered around 1505 as of late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 leads with 1504-1505 Elo via superior reasoning and coherence from dense transformer architectures, bolstered by Sonnet 4.6's million-token context, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 1503 leveraging sparse mixture-of-experts efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to inconsistent benchmark jumps, despite rapid iterations like GPT-5.4. March's barrage of releases—Qwen 3.5, DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5—accelerated gains but highlighted scaling hurdles like compute costs and data scarcity, fostering doubt on breaching 1550 before year-end without architectural breakthroughs; watch for Anthropic's rumored Claude Mythos or Google Deep Think previews.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$24,143Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with "None in 2026" at 42% slightly edging Anthropic's 40% implied probability for first reaching 1550 Elo on LMSYS Chatbot Arena, amid top models clustered around 1505 as of late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 leads with 1504-1505 Elo via superior reasoning and coherence from dense transformer architectures, bolstered by Sonnet 4.6's million-token context, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 1503 leveraging sparse mixture-of-experts efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to inconsistent benchmark jumps, despite rapid iterations like GPT-5.4. March's barrage of releases—Qwen 3.5, DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5—accelerated gains but highlighted scaling hurdles like compute costs and data scarcity, fostering doubt on breaching 1550 before year-end without architectural breakthroughs; watch for Anthropic's rumored Claude Mythos or Google Deep Think previews.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$24,143Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with "None in 2026" at 42% slightly edging Anthropic's 40% implied probability for first reaching 1550 Elo on LMSYS Chatbot Arena, amid top models clustered around 1505 as of late March. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 leads with 1504-1505 Elo via superior reasoning and coherence from dense transformer architectures, bolstered by Sonnet 4.6's million-token context, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails closely at 1503 leveraging sparse mixture-of-experts efficiency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to inconsistent benchmark jumps, despite rapid iterations like GPT-5.4. March's barrage of releases—Qwen 3.5, DeepSeek V3.2, GLM-5—accelerated gains but highlighted scaling hurdles like compute costs and data scarcity, fostering doubt on breaching 1550 before year-end without architectural breakthroughs; watch for Anthropic's rumored Claude Mythos or Google Deep Think previews.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes