Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.7% for "No" on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or legal proceedings from DOJ or other law enforcement agencies targeting him or the company. Recent developments underscore stability: Amodei highlighted explosive revenue growth—up 80x annualized in Q1 2026—at industry conferences, while securing massive compute deals with AWS, Google, and Microsoft totaling over $80 billion in equity commitments. No scandals, indictments, or regulatory probes have emerged in the past 30 days amid Anthropic's rapid expansion. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen federal charges, such as antitrust or national security violations, though high barriers like lack of precedent maintain trader confidence through the June 30, 2026, resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$160,648 Vol.
$160,648 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$160,648 Vol.
$160,648 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.7% for "No" on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or legal proceedings from DOJ or other law enforcement agencies targeting him or the company. Recent developments underscore stability: Amodei highlighted explosive revenue growth—up 80x annualized in Q1 2026—at industry conferences, while securing massive compute deals with AWS, Google, and Microsoft totaling over $80 billion in equity commitments. No scandals, indictments, or regulatory probes have emerged in the past 30 days amid Anthropic's rapid expansion. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen federal charges, such as antitrust or national security violations, though high barriers like lack of precedent maintain trader confidence through the June 30, 2026, resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$160,648Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.7% for "No" on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or legal proceedings from DOJ or other law enforcement agencies targeting him or the company. Recent developments underscore stability: Amodei highlighted explosive revenue growth—up 80x annualized in Q1 2026—at industry conferences, while securing massive compute deals with AWS, Google, and Microsoft totaling over $80 billion in equity commitments. No scandals, indictments, or regulatory probes have emerged in the past 30 days amid Anthropic's rapid expansion. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen federal charges, such as antitrust or national security violations, though high barriers like lack of precedent maintain trader confidence through the June 30, 2026, resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$160,648Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.7% for "No" on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of credible reports, investigations, or legal proceedings from DOJ or other law enforcement agencies targeting him or the company. Recent developments underscore stability: Amodei highlighted explosive revenue growth—up 80x annualized in Q1 2026—at industry conferences, while securing massive compute deals with AWS, Google, and Microsoft totaling over $80 billion in equity commitments. No scandals, indictments, or regulatory probes have emerged in the past 30 days amid Anthropic's rapid expansion. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen federal charges, such as antitrust or national security violations, though high barriers like lack of precedent maintain trader confidence through the June 30, 2026, resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes