Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.2% on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of any reported criminal investigations, indictments, or charges against him despite high-profile civil tensions with the Department of Defense. Recent escalations, including a D.C. Circuit Court denial on April 8 of Anthropic's bid to pause its "supply chain risk" designation—stemming from the company's refusal to remove AI safety guardrails for military applications—remain purely regulatory and contractual disputes, with no DOJ involvement or criminal referrals. Amodei's leaked memo criticizing the Trump administration and subsequent lawsuits have fueled speculation but lack any evidentiary basis for prosecution. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like a special counsel probe or unrelated legal violations, though structural barriers to arrest remain high absent probable cause.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$145,924 Vol.
$145,924 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$145,924 Vol.
$145,924 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.2% on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of any reported criminal investigations, indictments, or charges against him despite high-profile civil tensions with the Department of Defense. Recent escalations, including a D.C. Circuit Court denial on April 8 of Anthropic's bid to pause its "supply chain risk" designation—stemming from the company's refusal to remove AI safety guardrails for military applications—remain purely regulatory and contractual disputes, with no DOJ involvement or criminal referrals. Amodei's leaked memo criticizing the Trump administration and subsequent lawsuits have fueled speculation but lack any evidentiary basis for prosecution. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like a special counsel probe or unrelated legal violations, though structural barriers to arrest remain high absent probable cause.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$145,924Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.2% on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of any reported criminal investigations, indictments, or charges against him despite high-profile civil tensions with the Department of Defense. Recent escalations, including a D.C. Circuit Court denial on April 8 of Anthropic's bid to pause its "supply chain risk" designation—stemming from the company's refusal to remove AI safety guardrails for military applications—remain purely regulatory and contractual disputes, with no DOJ involvement or criminal referrals. Amodei's leaked memo criticizing the Trump administration and subsequent lawsuits have fueled speculation but lack any evidentiary basis for prosecution. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like a special counsel probe or unrelated legal violations, though structural barriers to arrest remain high absent probable cause.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$145,924Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.2% on Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest, driven by the complete absence of any reported criminal investigations, indictments, or charges against him despite high-profile civil tensions with the Department of Defense. Recent escalations, including a D.C. Circuit Court denial on April 8 of Anthropic's bid to pause its "supply chain risk" designation—stemming from the company's refusal to remove AI safety guardrails for military applications—remain purely regulatory and contractual disputes, with no DOJ involvement or criminal referrals. Amodei's leaked memo criticizing the Trump administration and subsequent lawsuits have fueled speculation but lack any evidentiary basis for prosecution. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen developments like a special counsel probe or unrelated legal violations, though structural barriers to arrest remain high absent probable cause.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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