Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices in no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (94% implied probability), anchored by the absence of any official filing or timeline from the Claude AI developer, alongside ample private capital from Amazon's $8 billion commitment and Google's investments, sustaining a post-money valuation above $18 billion without public market pressure. CEO Dario Amodei's recent statements prioritize long-term AI safety and scaling over near-term liquidity events, amid a frosty IPO environment for frontier AI firms facing regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and SEC. Upside scenarios challenging this include explosive revenue from enterprise Claude adoption exceeding $5 billion annually or a post-2024 election IPO window revival, potentially eyeing 100-200B caps akin to peers like OpenAI.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 94.0%
600 Md+ 2.1%
100–200 milliards 1.3%
300–400 Md 1.1%
$790,935 Vol.
$790,935 Vol.
<100B
<1%
100–200 milliards
1%
Titre de l’élément du groupe : 200–300 milliards
1%
300–400 Md
1%
400–600 Md$
1%
600 Md+
2%
Pas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
94%
Pas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026 94.0%
600 Md+ 2.1%
100–200 milliards 1.3%
300–400 Md 1.1%
$790,935 Vol.
$790,935 Vol.
<100B
<1%
100–200 milliards
1%
Titre de l’élément du groupe : 200–300 milliards
1%
300–400 Md
1%
400–600 Md$
1%
600 Md+
2%
Pas d'entrée en bourse d'ici le 30 juin 2026
94%
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices in no Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026 (94% implied probability), anchored by the absence of any official filing or timeline from the Claude AI developer, alongside ample private capital from Amazon's $8 billion commitment and Google's investments, sustaining a post-money valuation above $18 billion without public market pressure. CEO Dario Amodei's recent statements prioritize long-term AI safety and scaling over near-term liquidity events, amid a frosty IPO environment for frontier AI firms facing regulatory scrutiny from the FTC and SEC. Upside scenarios challenging this include explosive revenue from enterprise Claude adoption exceeding $5 billion annually or a post-2024 election IPO window revival, potentially eyeing 100-200B caps akin to peers like OpenAI.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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