Alibaba's dominant 97% market-implied probability stems primarily from its August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter large language model that rapidly climbed AI text and visual leaderboards with strong multimodal reasoning, coding, and agentic performance comparable to or exceeding leading U.S. systems. This built on Alibaba's ongoing full-stack investments in cloud infrastructure, T-Head chips, and the Qwen series, reinforced by prior model updates and ecosystem integration across its platforms. Traders appear to view these demonstrated capabilities and recent momentum as decisive for end-of-August leadership. A late-month breakthrough from DeepSeek or Moonshot on efficiency benchmarks or a major regulatory shift could still introduce uncertainty before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAlibaba 96.9%
Z.ai 1.8%
Moonshot 1.0%
Baidu <1%
$626,446 Vol.
$626,446 Vol.
30 août 2026
Alibaba
97%
Z.ai
2%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 96.9%
Z.ai 1.8%
Moonshot 1.0%
Baidu <1%
$626,446 Vol.
$626,446 Vol.
30 août 2026
Alibaba
$146,120 Vol.
97%
Z.ai
$80,529 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$50,765 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$72,647 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$125,029 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$58,872 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$30,184 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$33,140 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$23,443 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,378 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$3,339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 97% market-implied probability stems primarily from its August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter large language model that rapidly climbed AI text and visual leaderboards with strong multimodal reasoning, coding, and agentic performance comparable to or exceeding leading U.S. systems. This built on Alibaba's ongoing full-stack investments in cloud infrastructure, T-Head chips, and the Qwen series, reinforced by prior model updates and ecosystem integration across its platforms. Traders appear to view these demonstrated capabilities and recent momentum as decisive for end-of-August leadership. A late-month breakthrough from DeepSeek or Moonshot on efficiency benchmarks or a major regulatory shift could still introduce uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ET
Volume
$626,446Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Alibaba's dominant 97% market-implied probability stems primarily from its August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter large language model that rapidly climbed AI text and visual leaderboards with strong multimodal reasoning, coding, and agentic performance comparable to or exceeding leading U.S. systems. This built on Alibaba's ongoing full-stack investments in cloud infrastructure, T-Head chips, and the Qwen series, reinforced by prior model updates and ecosystem integration across its platforms. Traders appear to view these demonstrated capabilities and recent momentum as decisive for end-of-August leadership. A late-month breakthrough from DeepSeek or Moonshot on efficiency benchmarks or a major regulatory shift could still introduce uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, Bytedance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$626,446Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 16, 2026, 10:59 PM ETSource de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba's dominant 97% market-implied probability stems primarily from its August 3, 2026 launch of Qwen3.8-Max, a 2.4-trillion-parameter large language model that rapidly climbed AI text and visual leaderboards with strong multimodal reasoning, coding, and agentic performance comparable to or exceeding leading U.S. systems. This built on Alibaba's ongoing full-stack investments in cloud infrastructure, T-Head chips, and the Qwen series, reinforced by prior model updates and ecosystem integration across its platforms. Traders appear to view these demonstrated capabilities and recent momentum as decisive for end-of-August leadership. A late-month breakthrough from DeepSeek or Moonshot on efficiency benchmarks or a major regulatory shift could still introduce uncertainty before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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