Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, reflecting the artificial intelligence leader's $157 billion post-money valuation from its October 2024 $6.6 billion funding round—still roughly one-sixth of the target—and lack of any announced public listing timeline. CEO Sam Altman's focus remains on advancing large language models like the o1 reasoning series and AGI pursuits, complicated by the firm's recent for-profit transition under nonprofit oversight and Microsoft’s significant equity stake, which raises antitrust concerns. No fresh IPO signals emerged in the past week, prioritizing product roadmaps over Wall Street debuts. Upcoming catalysts include year-end revenue disclosures and potential U.S. AI regulatory actions that could further postpone market entry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$241,440 Vol.
$241,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$241,440 Vol.
$241,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, reflecting the artificial intelligence leader's $157 billion post-money valuation from its October 2024 $6.6 billion funding round—still roughly one-sixth of the target—and lack of any announced public listing timeline. CEO Sam Altman's focus remains on advancing large language models like the o1 reasoning series and AGI pursuits, complicated by the firm's recent for-profit transition under nonprofit oversight and Microsoft’s significant equity stake, which raises antitrust concerns. No fresh IPO signals emerged in the past week, prioritizing product roadmaps over Wall Street debuts. Upcoming catalysts include year-end revenue disclosures and potential U.S. AI regulatory actions that could further postpone market entry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$241,440Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, reflecting the artificial intelligence leader's $157 billion post-money valuation from its October 2024 $6.6 billion funding round—still roughly one-sixth of the target—and lack of any announced public listing timeline. CEO Sam Altman's focus remains on advancing large language models like the o1 reasoning series and AGI pursuits, complicated by the firm's recent for-profit transition under nonprofit oversight and Microsoft’s significant equity stake, which raises antitrust concerns. No fresh IPO signals emerged in the past week, prioritizing product roadmaps over Wall Street debuts. Upcoming catalysts include year-end revenue disclosures and potential U.S. AI regulatory actions that could further postpone market entry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$241,440Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76% implied probability to "No" for OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027, reflecting the artificial intelligence leader's $157 billion post-money valuation from its October 2024 $6.6 billion funding round—still roughly one-sixth of the target—and lack of any announced public listing timeline. CEO Sam Altman's focus remains on advancing large language models like the o1 reasoning series and AGI pursuits, complicated by the firm's recent for-profit transition under nonprofit oversight and Microsoft’s significant equity stake, which raises antitrust concerns. No fresh IPO signals emerged in the past week, prioritizing product roadmaps over Wall Street debuts. Upcoming catalysts include year-end revenue disclosures and potential U.S. AI regulatory actions that could further postpone market entry.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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