Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—providing massive runway amid high AI compute costs and projected losses. This diminishes urgency despite Wall Street Journal reports in January of Q4 2026 plans to outpace Anthropic, compounded by governance red flags like a leaked cap table showing CEO Sam Altman with zero equity and ongoing regulatory scrutiny over artificial intelligence safety and antitrust concerns involving Microsoft. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.3%) reflect AI growth hype if a debut occurs, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings in H2 2026 or competitive moves by rivals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 67%
1.5T+ 9.3%
1,25T–1,5T 8.8%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 5.0%
$1,555,573 Vol.
$1,555,573 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
4%
500–750 milliards de dollars
2%
750B–1T
3%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
5%
1,25T–1,5T
9%
1.5T+
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
67%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 67%
1.5T+ 9.3%
1,25T–1,5T 8.8%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards 5.0%
$1,555,573 Vol.
$1,555,573 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
$257,630 Vol.
4%
500–750 milliards de dollars
$139,528 Vol.
2%
750B–1T
$130,954 Vol.
3%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
$173,152 Vol.
5%
1,25T–1,5T
$487,786 Vol.
9%
1.5T+
$92,645 Vol.
9%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
$273,876 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—providing massive runway amid high AI compute costs and projected losses. This diminishes urgency despite Wall Street Journal reports in January of Q4 2026 plans to outpace Anthropic, compounded by governance red flags like a leaked cap table showing CEO Sam Altman with zero equity and ongoing regulatory scrutiny over artificial intelligence safety and antitrust concerns involving Microsoft. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.3%) reflect AI growth hype if a debut occurs, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings in H2 2026 or competitive moves by rivals.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,555,573Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—providing massive runway amid high AI compute costs and projected losses. This diminishes urgency despite Wall Street Journal reports in January of Q4 2026 plans to outpace Anthropic, compounded by governance red flags like a leaked cap table showing CEO Sam Altman with zero equity and ongoing regulatory scrutiny over artificial intelligence safety and antitrust concerns involving Microsoft. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.3%) reflect AI growth hype if a debut occurs, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings in H2 2026 or competitive moves by rivals.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,555,573Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026 at 66.5% implied probability, driven by the company's record $122 billion funding round closed March 31 at an $852 billion post-money valuation—providing massive runway amid high AI compute costs and projected losses. This diminishes urgency despite Wall Street Journal reports in January of Q4 2026 plans to outpace Anthropic, compounded by governance red flags like a leaked cap table showing CEO Sam Altman with zero equity and ongoing regulatory scrutiny over artificial intelligence safety and antitrust concerns involving Microsoft. High-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.3%) reflect AI growth hype if a debut occurs, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings in H2 2026 or competitive moves by rivals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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