Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled its "thinking" variant to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control on, achieving a leading 1505 Arena Elo score and dominating the top four spots, fueling trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability of holding #1 by May 31. Google follows at 21% amid Gemini model's steady gains narrowing the gap, while OpenAI lags at 9% despite GPT-5.4 variants, reflecting slower benchmark climbs. With six weeks to resolution, markets price in Anthropic's iteration speed versus potential disruptions from xAI or Meta releases, embodying crowdsourced wisdom from capital-at-risk bets on fleeting AI capability edges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 68%
Google 21%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$11,654 Vol.
$11,654 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

21%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

Meta
2%

Alibaba
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Microsoft
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 68%
Google 21%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$11,654 Vol.
$11,654 Vol.

Anthropic
68%

21%

OpenAI
9%

xAI
3%

Meta
2%

Alibaba
2%

DeepSeek
1%

Amazon
1%

Microsoft
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Baidu
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled its "thinking" variant to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard with style control on, achieving a leading 1505 Arena Elo score and dominating the top four spots, fueling trader consensus at 67.5% implied probability of holding #1 by May 31. Google follows at 21% amid Gemini model's steady gains narrowing the gap, while OpenAI lags at 9% despite GPT-5.4 variants, reflecting slower benchmark climbs. With six weeks to resolution, markets price in Anthropic's iteration speed versus potential disruptions from xAI or Meta releases, embodying crowdsourced wisdom from capital-at-risk bets on fleeting AI capability edges.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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