Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview models have driven the 79% implied probability through consistent leads on agentic coding, GPQA Diamond, and SWE-bench Verified benchmarks released in April and early May 2026. These updates introduced expanded 1M-token context windows, adaptive reasoning controls, and superior performance on long-form tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders view Anthropic’s edge in demonstrated enterprise-grade capabilities and lower hallucination rates as durable through month-end, while Google’s strong price-performance ratio keeps its 20% odds alive but insufficient to overtake without new benchmark surprises before May 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 80%
Google 20%
OpenAI 1.2%
Alibaba <1%
$567,004 Vol.
$567,004 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
80%
20%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 80%
Google 20%
OpenAI 1.2%
Alibaba <1%
$567,004 Vol.
$567,004 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
$54,016 Vol.
80%
$48,497 Vol.
20%
OpenAI
$33,884 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$55,675 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,371 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$44,593 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview models have driven the 79% implied probability through consistent leads on agentic coding, GPQA Diamond, and SWE-bench Verified benchmarks released in April and early May 2026. These updates introduced expanded 1M-token context windows, adaptive reasoning controls, and superior performance on long-form tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders view Anthropic’s edge in demonstrated enterprise-grade capabilities and lower hallucination rates as durable through month-end, while Google’s strong price-performance ratio keeps its 20% odds alive but insufficient to overtake without new benchmark surprises before May 31.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$567,004Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview models have driven the 79% implied probability through consistent leads on agentic coding, GPQA Diamond, and SWE-bench Verified benchmarks released in April and early May 2026. These updates introduced expanded 1M-token context windows, adaptive reasoning controls, and superior performance on long-form tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders view Anthropic’s edge in demonstrated enterprise-grade capabilities and lower hallucination rates as durable through month-end, while Google’s strong price-performance ratio keeps its 20% odds alive but insufficient to overtake without new benchmark surprises before May 31.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$567,004Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos Preview models have driven the 79% implied probability through consistent leads on agentic coding, GPQA Diamond, and SWE-bench Verified benchmarks released in April and early May 2026. These updates introduced expanded 1M-token context windows, adaptive reasoning controls, and superior performance on long-form tasks relative to OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders view Anthropic’s edge in demonstrated enterprise-grade capabilities and lower hallucination rates as durable through month-end, while Google’s strong price-performance ratio keeps its 20% odds alive but insufficient to overtake without new benchmark surprises before May 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes