Recent benchmark results from May 2026 position OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro as the clear frontrunners, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview as the strongest candidate for third. Traders favor Anthropic at 60.5 percent because its models continue to lead or tie in coding and agentic evaluations such as SWE-bench while delivering superior instruction-following and prose quality. Google sits at 38 percent on the strength of Gemini’s edge in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and broad multimodal capabilities, though its iterative updates have been less frequent. OpenAI’s dominance in the top two spots and xAI’s Grok releases keep the remaining probabilities low. With the May 31 resolution date approaching, any new capability announcements or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks could quickly alter the ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.5%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Vol.
$91,022 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
61%
39%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 61%
Google 39%
OpenAI 1.5%
xAI <1%
$91,022 Vol.
$91,022 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Anthropic
$13,880 Vol.
61%
$10,692 Vol.
39%
OpenAI
$6,933 Vol.
2%
xAI
$7,462 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$5,736 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$5,586 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$4,345 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$7,320 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$5,483 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,740 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$2,528 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,753 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$3,591 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,613 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent benchmark results from May 2026 position OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro as the clear frontrunners, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview as the strongest candidate for third. Traders favor Anthropic at 60.5 percent because its models continue to lead or tie in coding and agentic evaluations such as SWE-bench while delivering superior instruction-following and prose quality. Google sits at 38 percent on the strength of Gemini’s edge in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and broad multimodal capabilities, though its iterative updates have been less frequent. OpenAI’s dominance in the top two spots and xAI’s Grok releases keep the remaining probabilities low. With the May 31 resolution date approaching, any new capability announcements or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks could quickly alter the ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$91,022Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent benchmark results from May 2026 position OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro as the clear frontrunners, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview as the strongest candidate for third. Traders favor Anthropic at 60.5 percent because its models continue to lead or tie in coding and agentic evaluations such as SWE-bench while delivering superior instruction-following and prose quality. Google sits at 38 percent on the strength of Gemini’s edge in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and broad multimodal capabilities, though its iterative updates have been less frequent. OpenAI’s dominance in the top two spots and xAI’s Grok releases keep the remaining probabilities low. With the May 31 resolution date approaching, any new capability announcements or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks could quickly alter the ordering.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$91,022Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark results from May 2026 position OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro as the clear frontrunners, leaving Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos preview as the strongest candidate for third. Traders favor Anthropic at 60.5 percent because its models continue to lead or tie in coding and agentic evaluations such as SWE-bench while delivering superior instruction-following and prose quality. Google sits at 38 percent on the strength of Gemini’s edge in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA Diamond and broad multimodal capabilities, though its iterative updates have been less frequent. OpenAI’s dominance in the top two spots and xAI’s Grok releases keep the remaining probabilities low. With the May 31 resolution date approaching, any new capability announcements or benchmark shifts in the next two weeks could quickly alter the ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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