Polymarket's trader consensus, backed by real capital at stake, prices April US CPI year-over-year inflation at 3.6% with a 30.5% implied probability, in a tight cluster with 3.7% (22.1%), 3.8% (18.4%), and 3.5% (16.0%) commanding nearly 87% of odds amid post-March uncertainty. The March report's headline surge to 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 21.2% gasoline spike, despite core CPI steadying at 2.6%—lifted expectations, though softening wholesale prices (PPI +4.0% YoY, below forecasts) and easing national gas averages to $4.03 per gallon as of April 23 temper upside risks. Sticky shelter costs at 3% YoY sustain contention, with Cleveland Fed nowcasting 3.56% headline; watch BLS release May 12.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$80,483 Vol.
$80,483 Vol.
≤3,1 %
1%
3,2 %
2%
3,3 %
2%
3,4 %
3%
3,5 %
16%
3,6 %
31%
3,7 %
22%
3,8 %
18%
3,9 %
5%
4,0 %
1%
≥4,1 %
4%
$80,483 Vol.
$80,483 Vol.
≤3,1 %
1%
3,2 %
2%
3,3 %
2%
3,4 %
3%
3,5 %
16%
3,6 %
31%
3,7 %
22%
3,8 %
18%
3,9 %
5%
4,0 %
1%
≥4,1 %
4%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Apr 10, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket's trader consensus, backed by real capital at stake, prices April US CPI year-over-year inflation at 3.6% with a 30.5% implied probability, in a tight cluster with 3.7% (22.1%), 3.8% (18.4%), and 3.5% (16.0%) commanding nearly 87% of odds amid post-March uncertainty. The March report's headline surge to 3.3%—up sharply from February's 2.4% on a 21.2% gasoline spike, despite core CPI steadying at 2.6%—lifted expectations, though softening wholesale prices (PPI +4.0% YoY, below forecasts) and easing national gas averages to $4.03 per gallon as of April 23 temper upside risks. Sticky shelter costs at 3% YoY sustain contention, with Cleveland Fed nowcasting 3.56% headline; watch BLS release May 12.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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