Surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated March CPI year-over-year inflation, pricing a 47% implied probability for ≥3.4% and 36.6% for exactly 3.3%, reflecting aggregated capital at stake. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4%—unchanged from January—with core at 2.5%, but late-March gasoline averages surpassing $4 per gallon, up over 30% since late February, signal a sharp energy rebound poised to boost the headline print. Consensus economist forecasts hover near 3.4%, amid rising one-year inflation expectations hitting multi-year highs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases official March data April 10, a pivotal catalyst ahead of FOMC deliberations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥3,4 % 47.0%
3,3 % 36.6%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 2.5%
$933,152 Vol.
$933,152 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
<1%
2,8 %
<1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
<1%
3,1 %
2%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
37%
≥3,4 %
47%
≥3,4 % 47.0%
3,3 % 36.6%
3,2 % 14%
3,1 % 2.5%
$933,152 Vol.
$933,152 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
<1%
2,8 %
<1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
<1%
3,1 %
2%
3,2 %
14%
3,3 %
37%
≥3,4 %
47%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Surging oil prices from the ongoing Iran conflict have propelled Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated March CPI year-over-year inflation, pricing a 47% implied probability for ≥3.4% and 36.6% for exactly 3.3%, reflecting aggregated capital at stake. February's headline CPI held steady at 2.4%—unchanged from January—with core at 2.5%, but late-March gasoline averages surpassing $4 per gallon, up over 30% since late February, signal a sharp energy rebound poised to boost the headline print. Consensus economist forecasts hover near 3.4%, amid rising one-year inflation expectations hitting multi-year highs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases official March data April 10, a pivotal catalyst ahead of FOMC deliberations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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