Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split between 3.3% (40.5%) and ≥3.4% (41.3%) for March 2026 CPI YoY, reflecting uncertainty over a projected rebound from February's 2.4% print amid reversing energy disinflation tailwinds. Recent hotter-than-expected February PPI at 3.4% YoY—core at 3.9%, the highest in 13 months—driven by a 32% gasoline surge from Middle East tensions and potential tariff passthrough, has lifted nowcasts like Cleveland Fed's April 1 update to 3.25%, yet traders price modest upside risk from volatile energy and shelter components. Key swing factors include final BLS basket weights and services pricing, with resolution looming April 10 ahead of FOMC implications for rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥3,4 % 41.1%
3,3 % 39.5%
3,2 % 12%
3,1 % 3.0%
$871,222 Vol.
$871,222 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
2%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
12%
3,3 %
40%
≥3,4 %
41%
≥3,4 % 41.1%
3,3 % 39.5%
3,2 % 12%
3,1 % 3.0%
$871,222 Vol.
$871,222 Vol.
≤2,6 %
1%
2,7 %
1%
2,8 %
1%
2,9 %
1%
3,0 %
2%
3,1 %
3%
3,2 %
12%
3,3 %
40%
≥3,4 %
41%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin split between 3.3% (40.5%) and ≥3.4% (41.3%) for March 2026 CPI YoY, reflecting uncertainty over a projected rebound from February's 2.4% print amid reversing energy disinflation tailwinds. Recent hotter-than-expected February PPI at 3.4% YoY—core at 3.9%, the highest in 13 months—driven by a 32% gasoline surge from Middle East tensions and potential tariff passthrough, has lifted nowcasts like Cleveland Fed's April 1 update to 3.25%, yet traders price modest upside risk from volatile energy and shelter components. Key swing factors include final BLS basket weights and services pricing, with resolution looming April 10 ahead of FOMC implications for rate path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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