Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices in a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at or above 2.8%, reflecting expectations of a sharp headline surge driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran that have spiked oil and gasoline prices. February's year-over-year CPI held steady at 2.4%, but economists forecast a 1% month-over-month jump—the largest since 2022—potentially lifting the annual rate to around 3.4%, while core CPI rises more modestly to 2.7% from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with surging world food prices and nowcasts like Cleveland Fed's 0.84% headline month-over-month estimate. A downside surprise would require muted energy pass-through or favorable base effects, though recent diesel explosions make this unlikely ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥2,8 % 98.5%
2,4 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,3 % <1%
$3,148,628 Vol.
$3,148,628 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
≥2,8 % 98.5%
2,4 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,3 % <1%
$3,148,628 Vol.
$3,148,628 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices in a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at or above 2.8%, reflecting expectations of a sharp headline surge driven by geopolitical tensions with Iran that have spiked oil and gasoline prices. February's year-over-year CPI held steady at 2.4%, but economists forecast a 1% month-over-month jump—the largest since 2022—potentially lifting the annual rate to around 3.4%, while core CPI rises more modestly to 2.7% from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with surging world food prices and nowcasts like Cleveland Fed's 0.84% headline month-over-month estimate. A downside surprise would require muted energy pass-through or favorable base effects, though recent diesel explosions make this unlikely ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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