Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.6% implied probability to March 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets amid surging energy costs that have propelled Cleveland Fed nowcasts to a headline 0.84% month-over-month gain—far above February's 0.3% print and the prior 2.4% annual rate. This shift stems from oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions, compounded by February's hotter-than-expected PPI rise of 0.7% month-over-month. Sticky shelter inflation adds upward pressure, though core measures remain near 2.5%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-nowcasted energy data or BLS methodological adjustments pulling the print below consensus forecasts around 2.4-2.5%; resolution follows BLS release on April 10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥2,8 % 98.6%
2,4 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,3 % <1%
$3,149,116 Vol.
$3,149,116 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
≥2,8 % 98.6%
2,4 % <1%
≤2,0 % <1%
2,3 % <1%
$3,149,116 Vol.
$3,149,116 Vol.
≤2,0 %
<1%
2,1 %
<1%
2,2 %
<1%
2,3 %
<1%
2,4 %
1%
2,5 %
<1%
2,6 %
<1%
2,7 %
<1%
≥2,8 %
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.6% implied probability to March 2026 CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting skin-in-the-game bets amid surging energy costs that have propelled Cleveland Fed nowcasts to a headline 0.84% month-over-month gain—far above February's 0.3% print and the prior 2.4% annual rate. This shift stems from oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to escalating Middle East tensions, compounded by February's hotter-than-expected PPI rise of 0.7% month-over-month. Sticky shelter inflation adds upward pressure, though core measures remain near 2.5%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-nowcasted energy data or BLS methodological adjustments pulling the print below consensus forecasts around 2.4-2.5%; resolution follows BLS release on April 10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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