Recent energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have driven expectations for the May 2026 U.S. CPI to accelerate from April’s 3.8% year-over-year print. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probabilities to 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the precise monthly contribution from gasoline and fuel oil amid the ongoing oil shock. Core measures are projected to rise more modestly, tempering the headline while still signaling persistent pressures. The June 10 release serves as the immediate catalyst, with outcomes hinging on final seasonal adjustments and shelter-component readings. This tight distribution underscores the market’s assessment that small variations in energy pass-through or base effects could shift the print between these adjacent levels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4.2% 45%
4.3% 38%
4.1% 11.5%
≥4,4 % 8%
$429,454 Vol.
$429,454 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
3%
4.1%
12%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
38%
≥4,4 %
8%
4.2% 45%
4.3% 38%
4.1% 11.5%
≥4,4 % 8%
$429,454 Vol.
$429,454 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
3%
4.1%
12%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
38%
≥4,4 %
8%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have driven expectations for the May 2026 U.S. CPI to accelerate from April’s 3.8% year-over-year print. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probabilities to 4.2% and 4.3%, reflecting uncertainty over the precise monthly contribution from gasoline and fuel oil amid the ongoing oil shock. Core measures are projected to rise more modestly, tempering the headline while still signaling persistent pressures. The June 10 release serves as the immediate catalyst, with outcomes hinging on final seasonal adjustments and shelter-component readings. This tight distribution underscores the market’s assessment that small variations in energy pass-through or base effects could shift the print between these adjacent levels.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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