Recent April CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March amid a sharp energy-price surge tied to geopolitical tensions, has shaped expectations for the May annual reading due June 10. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% year-over-year pace and 0.46% monthly gain, supporting the market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 4.2% (44.5%) and 4.3% (40.0%). Traders appear to price in partial moderation from April’s 0.6% monthly jump while factoring in lingering shelter and goods-price pressures. The narrow spread between the top two outcomes highlights uncertainty over how quickly tariff effects, supply disruptions, and wage trends will influence the print, with upcoming labor-market and producer-price data likely to drive further positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 10%
4.1% 6.3%
$358,823 Vol.
$358,823 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
10%
4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4 % 10%
4.1% 6.3%
$358,823 Vol.
$358,823 Vol.
≤3,3 %
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4 %
10%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data, which accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March amid a sharp energy-price surge tied to geopolitical tensions, has shaped expectations for the May annual reading due June 10. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a 4.18% year-over-year pace and 0.46% monthly gain, supporting the market-implied odds that cluster tightly around 4.2% (44.5%) and 4.3% (40.0%). Traders appear to price in partial moderation from April’s 0.6% monthly jump while factoring in lingering shelter and goods-price pressures. The narrow spread between the top two outcomes highlights uncertainty over how quickly tariff effects, supply disruptions, and wage trends will influence the print, with upcoming labor-market and producer-price data likely to drive further positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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