Argentina's May 2026 monthly inflation reading, scheduled for release later today by INDEC, carries a 76% market-implied probability of landing in the 2.2–2.4% range. This pricing reflects the continuation of disinflation under President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and monetary tightening, following April’s 2.6% month-over-month print that marked the first slowdown in nearly a year. Analyst surveys point to further moderation driven by a stable exchange rate, easing food prices, and lower fuel costs amid softer global oil prices, with consensus estimates clustered near 2%. The 15% probability assigned to ≤2.1% incorporates the risk of a sharper downside surprise, while the low single-digit odds on higher bins underscore the limited scope for reacceleration given the policy backdrop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2.2–2.4% 84%
≤2,1 % 15%
2.8–3.0% 8.2%
2.5–2.7% 3.6%
$50,774 Vol.
$50,774 Vol.
11 juin 2026
≤2,1 %
15%
2.2–2.4%
78%
2.5–2.7%
4%
2.8–3.0%
9%
3.1–3.3%
<1%
3.4–3.6%
<1%
3.7–3.9%
1%
4.0%+
<1%
2.2–2.4% 84%
≤2,1 % 15%
2.8–3.0% 8.2%
2.5–2.7% 3.6%
$50,774 Vol.
$50,774 Vol.
11 juin 2026
≤2,1 %
$966 Vol.
15%
2.2–2.4%
$47,005 Vol.
78%
2.5–2.7%
$590 Vol.
4%
2.8–3.0%
$486 Vol.
9%
3.1–3.3%
$329 Vol.
<1%
3.4–3.6%
$397 Vol.
<1%
3.7–3.9%
$391 Vol.
1%
4.0%+
$610 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina's May 2026 monthly inflation reading, scheduled for release later today by INDEC, carries a 76% market-implied probability of landing in the 2.2–2.4% range. This pricing reflects the continuation of disinflation under President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and monetary tightening, following April’s 2.6% month-over-month print that marked the first slowdown in nearly a year. Analyst surveys point to further moderation driven by a stable exchange rate, easing food prices, and lower fuel costs amid softer global oil prices, with consensus estimates clustered near 2%. The 15% probability assigned to ≤2.1% incorporates the risk of a sharper downside surprise, while the low single-digit odds on higher bins underscore the limited scope for reacceleration given the policy backdrop.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$50,774Date de fin
11 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Argentina's May 2026 monthly inflation reading, scheduled for release later today by INDEC, carries a 76% market-implied probability of landing in the 2.2–2.4% range. This pricing reflects the continuation of disinflation under President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and monetary tightening, following April’s 2.6% month-over-month print that marked the first slowdown in nearly a year. Analyst surveys point to further moderation driven by a stable exchange rate, easing food prices, and lower fuel costs amid softer global oil prices, with consensus estimates clustered near 2%. The 15% probability assigned to ≤2.1% incorporates the risk of a sharper downside surprise, while the low single-digit odds on higher bins underscore the limited scope for reacceleration given the policy backdrop.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$50,774Date de fin
11 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 13, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Argentina's May 2026 monthly inflation reading, scheduled for release later today by INDEC, carries a 76% market-implied probability of landing in the 2.2–2.4% range. This pricing reflects the continuation of disinflation under President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and monetary tightening, following April’s 2.6% month-over-month print that marked the first slowdown in nearly a year. Analyst surveys point to further moderation driven by a stable exchange rate, easing food prices, and lower fuel costs amid softer global oil prices, with consensus estimates clustered near 2%. The 15% probability assigned to ≤2.1% incorporates the risk of a sharper downside surprise, while the low single-digit odds on higher bins underscore the limited scope for reacceleration given the policy backdrop.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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