Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.1-0.3%, narrowly ahead of 0.4-0.6% at 27.2%, reflecting fragile recovery dynamics after Q4 2025's 0.3% expansion. Recent ifo nowcast revision to 0.11% quarter-on-quarter as of April 9 underscores subdued momentum, driven by Mideast conflict-fueled energy price shocks that prompted leading institutes to slash full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% on April 1. Mixed signals—manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 in March amid output gains, offset by services slowdown and January's 11.1% plunge in factory orders—fuel the close contest, with contraction risks at 16.4%. Key differentiators include manufacturing resilience versus services weakness and fiscal stimulus offsets to inflation pressures; watch April 24 ifo index and April 30 flash GDP release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,1-0,3 % 35%
0,4-0,6 % 27.1%
≤0,0 % 17.0%
0,7-0,9 % 16.3%
$19,016 Vol.
$19,016 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
≤0,0 %
17%
0,1-0,3 %
35%
0,4-0,6 %
27%
0,7-0,9 %
16%
1,0-1,2 %
5%
1,3 %+
7%
0,1-0,3 % 35%
0,4-0,6 % 27.1%
≤0,0 % 17.0%
0,7-0,9 % 16.3%
$19,016 Vol.
$19,016 Vol.
30 avr. 2026
≤0,0 %
$1,308 Vol.
17%
0,1-0,3 %
$1,826 Vol.
35%
0,4-0,6 %
$13,936 Vol.
27%
0,7-0,9 %
$681 Vol.
16%
1,0-1,2 %
$602 Vol.
5%
1,3 %+
$663 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.1-0.3%, narrowly ahead of 0.4-0.6% at 27.2%, reflecting fragile recovery dynamics after Q4 2025's 0.3% expansion. Recent ifo nowcast revision to 0.11% quarter-on-quarter as of April 9 underscores subdued momentum, driven by Mideast conflict-fueled energy price shocks that prompted leading institutes to slash full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% on April 1. Mixed signals—manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 in March amid output gains, offset by services slowdown and January's 11.1% plunge in factory orders—fuel the close contest, with contraction risks at 16.4%. Key differentiators include manufacturing resilience versus services weakness and fiscal stimulus offsets to inflation pressures; watch April 24 ifo index and April 30 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volume
$19,016Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.1-0.3%, narrowly ahead of 0.4-0.6% at 27.2%, reflecting fragile recovery dynamics after Q4 2025's 0.3% expansion. Recent ifo nowcast revision to 0.11% quarter-on-quarter as of April 9 underscores subdued momentum, driven by Mideast conflict-fueled energy price shocks that prompted leading institutes to slash full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% on April 1. Mixed signals—manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 in March amid output gains, offset by services slowdown and January's 11.1% plunge in factory orders—fuel the close contest, with contraction risks at 16.4%. Key differentiators include manufacturing resilience versus services weakness and fiscal stimulus offsets to inflation pressures; watch April 24 ifo index and April 30 flash GDP release.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,016Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 37% implied probability for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.1-0.3%, narrowly ahead of 0.4-0.6% at 27.2%, reflecting fragile recovery dynamics after Q4 2025's 0.3% expansion. Recent ifo nowcast revision to 0.11% quarter-on-quarter as of April 9 underscores subdued momentum, driven by Mideast conflict-fueled energy price shocks that prompted leading institutes to slash full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% on April 1. Mixed signals—manufacturing PMI rising to 52.2 in March amid output gains, offset by services slowdown and January's 11.1% plunge in factory orders—fuel the close contest, with contraction risks at 16.4%. Key differentiators include manufacturing resilience versus services weakness and fiscal stimulus offsets to inflation pressures; watch April 24 ifo index and April 30 flash GDP release.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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