Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, reflecting expectations of sustained labor market resilience amid robust nearshoring investments and manufacturing expansion under USMCA. January's official INEGI rate held steady at 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, bolstering optimism for further softening supported by 3.2% Q4 GDP growth and record remittances exceeding $60 billion annually. Economists' median forecast clusters around 2.4-2.5%, per Banxico surveys, though upside risks linger from persistent 11% benchmark rates potentially curbing hiring. Upcoming INEGI release on March 22 could catalyze shifts, with 2.5% (28.5%) as the next favored outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≤2,4 % 53%
2,5 % 21%
2,6 % 9.4%
2,8 % 3.5%
$16,600 Vol.
$16,600 Vol.
≤2,4 %
53%
2,5 %
28%
2,6 %
9%
2,7 %
3%
2,8 %
3%
2,9 %
1%
≥3,0 %
3%
≤2,4 % 53%
2,5 % 21%
2,6 % 9.4%
2,8 % 3.5%
$16,600 Vol.
$16,600 Vol.
≤2,4 %
53%
2,5 %
28%
2,6 %
9%
2,7 %
3%
2,8 %
3%
2,9 %
1%
≥3,0 %
3%
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 52.5% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, reflecting expectations of sustained labor market resilience amid robust nearshoring investments and manufacturing expansion under USMCA. January's official INEGI rate held steady at 2.5%, down from 2.7% in December, bolstering optimism for further softening supported by 3.2% Q4 GDP growth and record remittances exceeding $60 billion annually. Economists' median forecast clusters around 2.4-2.5%, per Banxico surveys, though upside risks linger from persistent 11% benchmark rates potentially curbing hiring. Upcoming INEGI release on March 22 could catalyze shifts, with 2.5% (28.5%) as the next favored outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes