Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holding its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% for the April 8 Monetary Policy Review, reflecting the February 18 decision's dovish stance where the Monetary Policy Committee anticipated inflation returning to the 2% target midpoint over the next year amid spare economic capacity and nine prior rate cuts since August 2024. Annual CPI stood at 3.1% for Q4 2025 but is projected to ease, with the RBNZ's own OCR track signaling stability through mid-2026. This strong consensus could be challenged by hotter-than-expected Q1 CPI data (due April 21 post-decision), a commodity price surge prompting hikes, or abrupt labor market weakening signaling cuts, though recent inflation expectations ticking to 2.59% one-year-ahead maintain the hold bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAucun changement 97.0%
Augmentation 3.8%
Diminuer <1%
Diminuer
<1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
4%
Aucun changement 97.0%
Augmentation 3.8%
Diminuer <1%
Diminuer
<1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
4%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its April 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their April 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its April 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their April 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 97% implied probability of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holding its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% for the April 8 Monetary Policy Review, reflecting the February 18 decision's dovish stance where the Monetary Policy Committee anticipated inflation returning to the 2% target midpoint over the next year amid spare economic capacity and nine prior rate cuts since August 2024. Annual CPI stood at 3.1% for Q4 2025 but is projected to ease, with the RBNZ's own OCR track signaling stability through mid-2026. This strong consensus could be challenged by hotter-than-expected Q1 CPI data (due April 21 post-decision), a commodity price surge prompting hikes, or abrupt labor market weakening signaling cuts, though recent inflation expectations ticking to 2.59% one-year-ahead maintain the hold bias.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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