Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations of a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause to evaluate incoming data. Hawkish signals from Governor Ueda, upward revisions to FY2026 core inflation forecasts amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient first-quarter GDP have supported gradual normalization, yet core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target with real rates still accommodative. May inflation figures, labor market indicators, and the July Tankan survey represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNo change 90%
25 bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 90%
25 bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps increase 2.4%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
8%
50+ bps increase
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader expectations of a 25 basis point hike to 1.00% at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause to evaluate incoming data. Hawkish signals from Governor Ueda, upward revisions to FY2026 core inflation forecasts amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, and resilient first-quarter GDP have supported gradual normalization, yet core CPI at 1.4% remains below the 2% target with real rates still accommodative. May inflation figures, labor market indicators, and the July Tankan survey represent the main near-term catalysts that could alter these probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes