Recent nowcasts place Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.7–3.3 percent annualized, while professional forecasters project 2.1 percent, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s 1.6 percent pace amid resilient business investment but softening consumer spending. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have pushed May CPI to 4.2 percent year-over-year, sustaining core inflation above 2.8 percent and keeping the Fed funds rate at 3.75 percent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Stable unemployment near 4.3 percent and mixed labor-market revisions add to uncertainty, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities centered on the 2.0–3.0 percent range as traders weigh incoming data releases against persistent price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 18%
≥3.5% 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
<1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
7%
2.0–2.5%
28%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
18%
≥3.5%
10%
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 18%
≥3.5% 10%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 juil. 2026
<1.0%
$1,129 Vol.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$729 Vol.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$743 Vol.
7%
2.0–2.5%
$1,371 Vol.
28%
2.5–3.0%
$898 Vol.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$887 Vol.
18%
≥3.5%
$984 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent nowcasts place Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.7–3.3 percent annualized, while professional forecasters project 2.1 percent, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s 1.6 percent pace amid resilient business investment but softening consumer spending. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have pushed May CPI to 4.2 percent year-over-year, sustaining core inflation above 2.8 percent and keeping the Fed funds rate at 3.75 percent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Stable unemployment near 4.3 percent and mixed labor-market revisions add to uncertainty, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities centered on the 2.0–3.0 percent range as traders weigh incoming data releases against persistent price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volume
$6,722Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent nowcasts place Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.7–3.3 percent annualized, while professional forecasters project 2.1 percent, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s 1.6 percent pace amid resilient business investment but softening consumer spending. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have pushed May CPI to 4.2 percent year-over-year, sustaining core inflation above 2.8 percent and keeping the Fed funds rate at 3.75 percent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Stable unemployment near 4.3 percent and mixed labor-market revisions add to uncertainty, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities centered on the 2.0–3.0 percent range as traders weigh incoming data releases against persistent price pressures.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$6,722Date de fin
30 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent nowcasts place Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth near 2.7–3.3 percent annualized, while professional forecasters project 2.1 percent, reflecting a modest rebound from Q1’s 1.6 percent pace amid resilient business investment but softening consumer spending. Elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have pushed May CPI to 4.2 percent year-over-year, sustaining core inflation above 2.8 percent and keeping the Fed funds rate at 3.75 percent ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting. Stable unemployment near 4.3 percent and mixed labor-market revisions add to uncertainty, producing closely matched Polymarket probabilities centered on the 2.0–3.0 percent range as traders weigh incoming data releases against persistent price pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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