The Reserve Bank of Australia's June 2026 cash rate decision shows overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for no change from the current 4.35% target, following the 25 basis point hike in May. Recent inflation readings, with trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in April and headline measures elevated amid Middle East supply pressures, have prompted the RBA to pause and evaluate second-round effects on goods and services prices. ASX 30-day interbank futures and economist surveys align on a hold at the June 16 meeting, pricing limited further tightening this year despite forecasts of inflation peaking near 4.8% mid-year. A sharper acceleration in underlying inflation or labor market resilience could still shift the outlook toward additional hikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 97.1%
Augmentation 2.8%
Diminution <1%
$36,428 Vol.
$36,428 Vol.
Diminution
<1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
3%
Aucun changement 97.1%
Augmentation 2.8%
Diminution <1%
$36,428 Vol.
$36,428 Vol.
Diminution
<1%
Aucun changement
97%
Augmentation
3%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reserve Bank of Australia's June 2026 cash rate decision shows overwhelming market-implied odds of 97% for no change from the current 4.35% target, following the 25 basis point hike in May. Recent inflation readings, with trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in April and headline measures elevated amid Middle East supply pressures, have prompted the RBA to pause and evaluate second-round effects on goods and services prices. ASX 30-day interbank futures and economist surveys align on a hold at the June 16 meeting, pricing limited further tightening this year despite forecasts of inflation peaking near 4.8% mid-year. A sharper acceleration in underlying inflation or labor market resilience could still shift the outlook toward additional hikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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