Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war and Middle East tensions, prompting traders to price a 78% implied probability of an ECB rate hike sometime in 2026. The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing geopolitical risks. Hawkish signals from Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and ECB policymaker Wunsch, who warned of tightening if the conflict persists beyond June, have shifted consensus toward monetary tightening, with banks like J.P. Morgan forecasting multiple 25 basis point increases this year ahead of the next policy meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Hausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Oui
$84,337 Vol.
$84,337 Vol.
Oui
$84,337 Vol.
$84,337 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war and Middle East tensions, prompting traders to price a 78% implied probability of an ECB rate hike sometime in 2026. The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing geopolitical risks. Hawkish signals from Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and ECB policymaker Wunsch, who warned of tightening if the conflict persists beyond June, have shifted consensus toward monetary tightening, with banks like J.P. Morgan forecasting multiple 25 basis point increases this year ahead of the next policy meeting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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