Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February and driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict involving Iran, prompting traders to price an ECB rate hike at 78% implied probability for the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled readiness for increases even on short-lived surges during her March 25 speech, while the Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but revised 2026 headline inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% amid subdued 0.9% growth projections. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau recently affirmed the next policy shift is likely upward, with markets implying 81% odds of a 25 basis point rise at the April 29-30 meeting, reflecting consensus on countering persistent price pressures above the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Hausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Oui
$84,337 Vol.
$84,337 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$84,337 Vol.
$84,337 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February and driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict involving Iran, prompting traders to price an ECB rate hike at 78% implied probability for the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled readiness for increases even on short-lived surges during her March 25 speech, while the Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but revised 2026 headline inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% amid subdued 0.9% growth projections. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau recently affirmed the next policy shift is likely upward, with markets implying 81% odds of a 25 basis point rise at the April 29-30 meeting, reflecting consensus on countering persistent price pressures above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$84,337Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February and driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict involving Iran, prompting traders to price an ECB rate hike at 78% implied probability for the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled readiness for increases even on short-lived surges during her March 25 speech, while the Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but revised 2026 headline inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% amid subdued 0.9% growth projections. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau recently affirmed the next policy shift is likely upward, with markets implying 81% odds of a 25 basis point rise at the April 29-30 meeting, reflecting consensus on countering persistent price pressures above the 2% target.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$84,337Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February and driven by energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict involving Iran, prompting traders to price an ECB rate hike at 78% implied probability for the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled readiness for increases even on short-lived surges during her March 25 speech, while the Governing Council held the deposit rate at 2% on March 19 but revised 2026 headline inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% amid subdued 0.9% growth projections. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau recently affirmed the next policy shift is likely upward, with markets implying 81% odds of a 25 basis point rise at the April 29-30 meeting, reflecting consensus on countering persistent price pressures above the 2% target.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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