Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran war and Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. The Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its March 19 meeting—deposit facility at 2.00%—but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau on April 2, Bundesbank President Nagel, and others indicate the next move is likely a rate hike, with markets pricing an 88% chance at the April 29-30 meeting. This trader consensus at 82% for a 2026 ECB rate hike reflects persistent inflation risks and geopolitical pressures outweighing growth concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Hausse des taux de la BCE en 2026 ?
Oui
$84,563 Vol.
$84,563 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$84,563 Vol.
$84,563 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran war and Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. The Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its March 19 meeting—deposit facility at 2.00%—but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau on April 2, Bundesbank President Nagel, and others indicate the next move is likely a rate hike, with markets pricing an 88% chance at the April 29-30 meeting. This trader consensus at 82% for a 2026 ECB rate hike reflects persistent inflation risks and geopolitical pressures outweighing growth concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$84,563Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran war and Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. The Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its March 19 meeting—deposit facility at 2.00%—but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau on April 2, Bundesbank President Nagel, and others indicate the next move is likely a rate hike, with markets pricing an 88% chance at the April 29-30 meeting. This trader consensus at 82% for a 2026 ECB rate hike reflects persistent inflation risks and geopolitical pressures outweighing growth concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$84,563Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March 2026 from 1.9% in February, driven by elevated energy prices amid the Iran war and Middle East tensions, pushing headline inflation above the ECB's 2% target. The Governing Council held key interest rates steady at its March 19 meeting—deposit facility at 2.00%—but sharply raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%, signaling heightened vigilance. Hawkish comments from policymakers like Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau on April 2, Bundesbank President Nagel, and others indicate the next move is likely a rate hike, with markets pricing an 88% chance at the April 29-30 meeting. This trader consensus at 82% for a 2026 ECB rate hike reflects persistent inflation risks and geopolitical pressures outweighing growth concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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