US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment has solidified trader consensus at 92% for "No" on a US-China military clash before 2027, concluding Beijing lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion that year amid uneven PLA modernization, extensive leadership purges, and the "extremely challenging" risks of amphibious operations against US intervention. Frequent Chinese military drills encircling Taiwan and South China Sea tensions with the Philippines persist as deterrence signals, but no direct US-China confrontations have materialized, supported by diplomatic de-escalation calls and Washington's Middle East distractions. Economic interdependence and deterrence postures underpin low near-term escalation risks, though sudden territorial disputes or alliance shifts could alter probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$49,716 Vol.
$49,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$49,716 Vol.
$49,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment has solidified trader consensus at 92% for "No" on a US-China military clash before 2027, concluding Beijing lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion that year amid uneven PLA modernization, extensive leadership purges, and the "extremely challenging" risks of amphibious operations against US intervention. Frequent Chinese military drills encircling Taiwan and South China Sea tensions with the Philippines persist as deterrence signals, but no direct US-China confrontations have materialized, supported by diplomatic de-escalation calls and Washington's Middle East distractions. Economic interdependence and deterrence postures underpin low near-term escalation risks, though sudden territorial disputes or alliance shifts could alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$49,716Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment has solidified trader consensus at 92% for "No" on a US-China military clash before 2027, concluding Beijing lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion that year amid uneven PLA modernization, extensive leadership purges, and the "extremely challenging" risks of amphibious operations against US intervention. Frequent Chinese military drills encircling Taiwan and South China Sea tensions with the Philippines persist as deterrence signals, but no direct US-China confrontations have materialized, supported by diplomatic de-escalation calls and Washington's Middle East distractions. Economic interdependence and deterrence postures underpin low near-term escalation risks, though sudden territorial disputes or alliance shifts could alter probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$49,716Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment has solidified trader consensus at 92% for "No" on a US-China military clash before 2027, concluding Beijing lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion that year amid uneven PLA modernization, extensive leadership purges, and the "extremely challenging" risks of amphibious operations against US intervention. Frequent Chinese military drills encircling Taiwan and South China Sea tensions with the Philippines persist as deterrence signals, but no direct US-China confrontations have materialized, supported by diplomatic de-escalation calls and Washington's Middle East distractions. Economic interdependence and deterrence postures underpin low near-term escalation risks, though sudden territorial disputes or alliance shifts could alter probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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