Despite persistent gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, including China's April 15 deployment of vessels and a floating barrier to restrict access to Scarborough Shoal and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese fishermen near Second Thomas Shoal on April 13, trader consensus prices "No" military clash before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting a pattern of non-kinetic harassment via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA armed engagement. Late March near-collisions between warships and resumed bilateral talks on maritime tensions and energy cooperation underscore mutual restraint amid U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty dynamics and the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, which may advance code-of-conduct negotiations without tipping into open conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$253,722 Vol.
$253,722 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$253,722 Vol.
$253,722 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, including China's April 15 deployment of vessels and a floating barrier to restrict access to Scarborough Shoal and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese fishermen near Second Thomas Shoal on April 13, trader consensus prices "No" military clash before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting a pattern of non-kinetic harassment via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA armed engagement. Late March near-collisions between warships and resumed bilateral talks on maritime tensions and energy cooperation underscore mutual restraint amid U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty dynamics and the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, which may advance code-of-conduct negotiations without tipping into open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$253,722Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, including China's April 15 deployment of vessels and a floating barrier to restrict access to Scarborough Shoal and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese fishermen near Second Thomas Shoal on April 13, trader consensus prices "No" military clash before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting a pattern of non-kinetic harassment via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA armed engagement. Late March near-collisions between warships and resumed bilateral talks on maritime tensions and energy cooperation underscore mutual restraint amid U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty dynamics and the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, which may advance code-of-conduct negotiations without tipping into open conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$253,722Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent gray-zone coercion in the South China Sea, including China's April 15 deployment of vessels and a floating barrier to restrict access to Scarborough Shoal and Philippine accusations of cyanide dumping by Chinese fishermen near Second Thomas Shoal on April 13, trader consensus prices "No" military clash before 2027 at 80.5%, reflecting a pattern of non-kinetic harassment via coast guard and maritime militia rather than PLA armed engagement. Late March near-collisions between warships and resumed bilateral talks on maritime tensions and energy cooperation underscore mutual restraint amid U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty dynamics and the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, which may advance code-of-conduct negotiations without tipping into open conflict.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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