Ongoing hostilities in the US-Iran conflict, escalated by Israel's strikes on Iran following failed 2025 nuclear negotiations under President Trump, dominate trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5%. Recent rejections of a US 15-point plan to end the Middle East war—deemed "maximalist" by Tehran—coupled with Iran's missile attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad on March 14 and Switzerland's temporary closure of its Tehran embassy on March 11 amid security risks, underscore deep diplomatic freeze. Trump's February executive order labeling Iran an extraordinary threat, plus deadlines on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signal maximum pressure rather than normalization. The US embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 revolution; major de-escalation or regime shift would be needed to alter odds before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities in the US-Iran conflict, escalated by Israel's strikes on Iran following failed 2025 nuclear negotiations under President Trump, dominate trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5%. Recent rejections of a US 15-point plan to end the Middle East war—deemed "maximalist" by Tehran—coupled with Iran's missile attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad on March 14 and Switzerland's temporary closure of its Tehran embassy on March 11 amid security risks, underscore deep diplomatic freeze. Trump's February executive order labeling Iran an extraordinary threat, plus deadlines on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signal maximum pressure rather than normalization. The US embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 revolution; major de-escalation or regime shift would be needed to alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$29,601Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing hostilities in the US-Iran conflict, escalated by Israel's strikes on Iran following failed 2025 nuclear negotiations under President Trump, dominate trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5%. Recent rejections of a US 15-point plan to end the Middle East war—deemed "maximalist" by Tehran—coupled with Iran's missile attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad on March 14 and Switzerland's temporary closure of its Tehran embassy on March 11 amid security risks, underscore deep diplomatic freeze. Trump's February executive order labeling Iran an extraordinary threat, plus deadlines on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signal maximum pressure rather than normalization. The US embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 revolution; major de-escalation or regime shift would be needed to alter odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$29,601Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities in the US-Iran conflict, escalated by Israel's strikes on Iran following failed 2025 nuclear negotiations under President Trump, dominate trader consensus favoring "No" at 84.5%. Recent rejections of a US 15-point plan to end the Middle East war—deemed "maximalist" by Tehran—coupled with Iran's missile attack on the US embassy compound in Baghdad on March 14 and Switzerland's temporary closure of its Tehran embassy on March 11 amid security risks, underscore deep diplomatic freeze. Trump's February executive order labeling Iran an extraordinary threat, plus deadlines on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signal maximum pressure rather than normalization. The US embassy has remained shuttered since the 1979 revolution; major de-escalation or regime shift would be needed to alter odds before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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