Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by severed diplomatic relations since the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran's state sponsor of terrorism designation, and multilayered sanctions regime enforced by Congress and executive actions. Recent escalations—including Iran's April 2024 direct missile and drone strikes on Israel following an Israeli airstrike on its Damascus consulate, ongoing proxy support for Hamas in Gaza and Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping, and stalled indirect nuclear talks via Oman—have reinforced hostilities without any normalization signals. IAEA reports of Iran enriching uranium to near-weapons grade levels further dim prospects, with no policy shifts from the Biden administration or 2024 candidates amid bipartisan opposition and regional instability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLes États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$29,601 Vol.
$29,601 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by severed diplomatic relations since the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran's state sponsor of terrorism designation, and multilayered sanctions regime enforced by Congress and executive actions. Recent escalations—including Iran's April 2024 direct missile and drone strikes on Israel following an Israeli airstrike on its Damascus consulate, ongoing proxy support for Hamas in Gaza and Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping, and stalled indirect nuclear talks via Oman—have reinforced hostilities without any normalization signals. IAEA reports of Iran enriching uranium to near-weapons grade levels further dim prospects, with no policy shifts from the Biden administration or 2024 candidates amid bipartisan opposition and regional instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$29,601Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by severed diplomatic relations since the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran's state sponsor of terrorism designation, and multilayered sanctions regime enforced by Congress and executive actions. Recent escalations—including Iran's April 2024 direct missile and drone strikes on Israel following an Israeli airstrike on its Damascus consulate, ongoing proxy support for Hamas in Gaza and Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping, and stalled indirect nuclear talks via Oman—have reinforced hostilities without any normalization signals. IAEA reports of Iran enriching uranium to near-weapons grade levels further dim prospects, with no policy shifts from the Biden administration or 2024 candidates amid bipartisan opposition and regional instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$29,601Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 84.5% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, anchored by severed diplomatic relations since the 1979 hostage crisis, Iran's state sponsor of terrorism designation, and multilayered sanctions regime enforced by Congress and executive actions. Recent escalations—including Iran's April 2024 direct missile and drone strikes on Israel following an Israeli airstrike on its Damascus consulate, ongoing proxy support for Hamas in Gaza and Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping, and stalled indirect nuclear talks via Oman—have reinforced hostilities without any normalization signals. IAEA reports of Iran enriching uranium to near-weapons grade levels further dim prospects, with no policy shifts from the Biden administration or 2024 candidates amid bipartisan opposition and regional instability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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