**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent military escalations make full diplomatic normalization, including embassy reopening, highly unlikely by year-end.** The United States has maintained no formal diplomatic or consular relations with Iran since 1980, with Switzerland serving as the protecting power for US interests; multiple 2026 security alerts from the US Virtual Embassy Iran confirm this status amid regional instability. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program occurred in 2025 and early 2026, including rounds in Oman and elsewhere, but these were interrupted by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the reported 2026 Iran war, and subsequent ceasefire efforts that remain fragile as of mid-June. Recent developments include fresh US strikes in June 2026, Iranian protests, sanctions enforcement, and limited Swiss embassy operations in Tehran, all underscoring persistent security risks and policy frictions over enrichment, regional influence, and ballistic missiles. Trader consensus at 83% against reopening reflects these barriers: embassy restoration would require sustained de-escalation, sanctions relief, and verified compliance far beyond current nuclear talks or provisional ceasefires. Historical precedent shows such steps take years even after initial agreements, and no official announcements or procedural advances toward US diplomatic presence in Tehran have emerged in the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Les États-Unis rouvriront-ils leur ambassade en Iran en 2026 ?
Oui
$150,877 Vol.
$150,877 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$150,877 Vol.
$150,877 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent military escalations make full diplomatic normalization, including embassy reopening, highly unlikely by year-end.** The United States has maintained no formal diplomatic or consular relations with Iran since 1980, with Switzerland serving as the protecting power for US interests; multiple 2026 security alerts from the US Virtual Embassy Iran confirm this status amid regional instability.
Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program occurred in 2025 and early 2026, including rounds in Oman and elsewhere, but these were interrupted by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the reported 2026 Iran war, and subsequent ceasefire efforts that remain fragile as of mid-June. Recent developments include fresh US strikes in June 2026, Iranian protests, sanctions enforcement, and limited Swiss embassy operations in Tehran, all underscoring persistent security risks and policy frictions over enrichment, regional influence, and ballistic missiles.
Trader consensus at 83% against reopening reflects these barriers: embassy restoration would require sustained de-escalation, sanctions relief, and verified compliance far beyond current nuclear talks or provisional ceasefires. Historical precedent shows such steps take years even after initial agreements, and no official announcements or procedural advances toward US diplomatic presence in Tehran have emerged in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$150,877Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent military escalations make full diplomatic normalization, including embassy reopening, highly unlikely by year-end.** The United States has maintained no formal diplomatic or consular relations with Iran since 1980, with Switzerland serving as the protecting power for US interests; multiple 2026 security alerts from the US Virtual Embassy Iran confirm this status amid regional instability.
Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program occurred in 2025 and early 2026, including rounds in Oman and elsewhere, but these were interrupted by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the reported 2026 Iran war, and subsequent ceasefire efforts that remain fragile as of mid-June. Recent developments include fresh US strikes in June 2026, Iranian protests, sanctions enforcement, and limited Swiss embassy operations in Tehran, all underscoring persistent security risks and policy frictions over enrichment, regional influence, and ballistic missiles.
Trader consensus at 83% against reopening reflects these barriers: embassy restoration would require sustained de-escalation, sanctions relief, and verified compliance far beyond current nuclear talks or provisional ceasefires. Historical precedent shows such steps take years even after initial agreements, and no official announcements or procedural advances toward US diplomatic presence in Tehran have emerged in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$150,877Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and recent military escalations make full diplomatic normalization, including embassy reopening, highly unlikely by year-end.** The United States has maintained no formal diplomatic or consular relations with Iran since 1980, with Switzerland serving as the protecting power for US interests; multiple 2026 security alerts from the US Virtual Embassy Iran confirm this status amid regional instability. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program occurred in 2025 and early 2026, including rounds in Oman and elsewhere, but these were interrupted by US and Israeli strikes on Iranian sites, the reported 2026 Iran war, and subsequent ceasefire efforts that remain fragile as of mid-June. Recent developments include fresh US strikes in June 2026, Iranian protests, sanctions enforcement, and limited Swiss embassy operations in Tehran, all underscoring persistent security risks and policy frictions over enrichment, regional influence, and ballistic missiles. Trader consensus at 83% against reopening reflects these barriers: embassy restoration would require sustained de-escalation, sanctions relief, and verified compliance far beyond current nuclear talks or provisional ceasefires. Historical precedent shows such steps take years even after initial agreements, and no official announcements or procedural advances toward US diplomatic presence in Tehran have emerged in the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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