Following President Masoud Pezeshkian's inauguration on July 30, 2024, after winning Iran's June 28 first-round presidential election and July 5 runoff, traders assign a 92.4% implied probability to no further presidential election by June 30, reflecting constitutional norms for four-year terms absent vacancy from death, resignation, or impeachment. No recent official announcements from the Guardian Council or Supreme Leader indicate snap polls, despite regional tensions from Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which officials downplayed without triggering domestic leadership shifts. Historical patterns show elections only on fixed cycles or immediate post-vacancy triggers, as with Ebrahim Raisi's May 2024 death; barring unforeseen health events, scandals, or no-confidence moves, the timeline remains stable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Iran organisera-t-il une élection présidentielle d'ici le 30 juin ?
L'Iran organisera-t-il une élection présidentielle d'ici le 30 juin ?
Oui
$182,900 Vol.
$182,900 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oui
$182,900 Vol.
$182,900 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,900Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$182,900Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following President Masoud Pezeshkian's inauguration on July 30, 2024, after winning Iran's June 28 first-round presidential election and July 5 runoff, traders assign a 92.4% implied probability to no further presidential election by June 30, reflecting constitutional norms for four-year terms absent vacancy from death, resignation, or impeachment. No recent official announcements from the Guardian Council or Supreme Leader indicate snap polls, despite regional tensions from Iran's October 1 missile strikes on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which officials downplayed without triggering domestic leadership shifts. Historical patterns show elections only on fixed cycles or immediate post-vacancy triggers, as with Ebrahim Raisi's May 2024 death; barring unforeseen health events, scandals, or no-confidence moves, the timeline remains stable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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