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icon for Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
Monde·Élections Mondiales

Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?

icon for Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?
Monde·Élections Mondiales

Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ?

$475,220 Vol.

4 oct. 2026
Polymarket

$475,220 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$218,672 Vol.

97%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$47,095 Vol.

90%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$11,342 Vol.

7%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$610 Vol.

2%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$34,442 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$698 Vol.

1%

icon for Tarcisio de Frietas

Tarcisio de Frietas

$81,768 Vol.

1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$15,629 Vol.

1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$64,965 Vol.

1%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$475,220
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro currently lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the frontrunners most likely to advance to the October 25 runoff.** Lula, the incumbent PT president seeking a fourth term with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, holds roughly 40-43% in recent surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL trails in the low-to-mid 30s. Other registered candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, remain in single digits and show little momentum. Official campaigning began on August 16 after the candidacy registration deadline, with the first televised debate scheduled for August 23. Recent hypothetical runoff matchups show Lula holding narrow edges that have tightened amid economic and security concerns, though the fragmented opposition field continues to favor a two-candidate second round. Trader consensus on advancement reflects these stable polling patterns and the structural barriers facing lower-polling contenders.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$475,220
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Connexes

icon for Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?

Un candidat à la présidence gagnera-t-il dès le premier tour de l'élection au Brésil ?

13%
Oui
icon for Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Flávio Bolsonaro terminera-t-il à la deuxième place au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

85%
Oui
icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?

66%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 97%, suivi de « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 90%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 97¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » a généré $475.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 18, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » est « Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva » à 97%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 97% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Flavio Bolsonaro » à 90%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quels candidats se qualifieront pour le second tour de la présidentielle brésilienne ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.