Ronaldo Caiado edges Renan Santos as trader consensus favorite for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, with implied probabilities of 32.5% and 29% reflecting a fragmented center-right field where governors vie for strong showings behind likely top-two contenders President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and emerging rivals like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. October 2024 municipal elections strengthened conservative incumbents, as União Brasil (Caiado's party) and allies gained key mayoralties, boosting their organizational edge and polling in swing states, while Bolsonaro family members lag amid legal hurdles and voter fatigue. The tight race persists due to pending party nominations, coalition negotiations, and fluid national polls; fresh surveys, high-profile endorsements, or scandals could widen the gap ahead of the October 2026 vote under the two-round majoritarian system.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRonaldo Caiado 33%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 15%
Tarcisio de Freitas 6.8%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado
33%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
15%

Tarcisio de Freitas
7%

Flávio Bolsonaro
6%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Ratinho Júnior
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Camilo Santana
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado 33%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 15%
Tarcisio de Freitas 6.8%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado
33%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
15%

Tarcisio de Freitas
7%

Flávio Bolsonaro
6%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Ratinho Júnior
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Camilo Santana
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ronaldo Caiado edges Renan Santos as trader consensus favorite for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, with implied probabilities of 32.5% and 29% reflecting a fragmented center-right field where governors vie for strong showings behind likely top-two contenders President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and emerging rivals like São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. October 2024 municipal elections strengthened conservative incumbents, as União Brasil (Caiado's party) and allies gained key mayoralties, boosting their organizational edge and polling in swing states, while Bolsonaro family members lag amid legal hurdles and voter fatigue. The tight race persists due to pending party nominations, coalition negotiations, and fluid national polls; fresh surveys, high-profile endorsements, or scandals could widen the gap ahead of the October 2026 vote under the two-round majoritarian system.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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