Recent first-round polls underpin trader consensus pricing Lula da Silva's victory margins under 10 percentage points (51.5% combined probability), as Datafolha (April 7-9) and Quaest (April 9-13) show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-5 points at 37-39% versus 32-35%, with 14-16% blank/null votes ensuring a likely runoff. Narrower gaps in Futura (+2.5%) and Ideia (+3.4%) polls reflect Flávio's gains amid Lula's 44% approval, economic pressures like rising energy costs, and fragmented center-right field splitting votes to Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and others including Renan Santos. Cabinet resignations by June and regional dynamics could consolidate support, widening margins before October 4.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva <5% 30%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 21%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 % 13.6%
$223,525 Vol.
$223,525 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
23%
Lula da Silva <5%
33%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
14%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
21%
Victoire de Renan Santos
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
1%
Autre
5%
Lula da Silva <5% 30%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 21%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 % 13.6%
$223,525 Vol.
$223,525 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,979 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$1,905 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,286 Vol.
23%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,236 Vol.
33%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$1,209 Vol.
14%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,508 Vol.
11%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$3,076 Vol.
21%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$199,424 Vol.
5%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$870 Vol.
<1%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$1,395 Vol.
1%
Autre
$1,637 Vol.
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent first-round polls underpin trader consensus pricing Lula da Silva's victory margins under 10 percentage points (51.5% combined probability), as Datafolha (April 7-9) and Quaest (April 9-13) show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-5 points at 37-39% versus 32-35%, with 14-16% blank/null votes ensuring a likely runoff. Narrower gaps in Futura (+2.5%) and Ideia (+3.4%) polls reflect Flávio's gains amid Lula's 44% approval, economic pressures like rising energy costs, and fragmented center-right field splitting votes to Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and others including Renan Santos. Cabinet resignations by June and regional dynamics could consolidate support, widening margins before October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$223,525Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent first-round polls underpin trader consensus pricing Lula da Silva's victory margins under 10 percentage points (51.5% combined probability), as Datafolha (April 7-9) and Quaest (April 9-13) show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-5 points at 37-39% versus 32-35%, with 14-16% blank/null votes ensuring a likely runoff. Narrower gaps in Futura (+2.5%) and Ideia (+3.4%) polls reflect Flávio's gains amid Lula's 44% approval, economic pressures like rising energy costs, and fragmented center-right field splitting votes to Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and others including Renan Santos. Cabinet resignations by June and regional dynamics could consolidate support, widening margins before October 4.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$223,525Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent first-round polls underpin trader consensus pricing Lula da Silva's victory margins under 10 percentage points (51.5% combined probability), as Datafolha (April 7-9) and Quaest (April 9-13) show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 4-5 points at 37-39% versus 32-35%, with 14-16% blank/null votes ensuring a likely runoff. Narrower gaps in Futura (+2.5%) and Ideia (+3.4%) polls reflect Flávio's gains amid Lula's 44% approval, economic pressures like rising energy costs, and fragmented center-right field splitting votes to Tarcísio de Freitas (4-6%) and others including Renan Santos. Cabinet resignations by June and regional dynamics could consolidate support, widening margins before October 4.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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