Recent Brazilian polls from Datafolha and Quaest depict a tight first-round presidential race, with incumbent Lula da Silva hovering around 42-45% support against fragmented opposition totaling 35-40%, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 36% implied probability. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his rising visibility as a potential right-wing frontrunner amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing legal battles and ineligibility. Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 18.5%, underscoring economic headwinds like inflation and his dipping approval ratings below 50%. No candidate has secured a first-round majority in simulations, heightening runoff risks, while candidate registration deadlines in 2026 loom as key catalysts. Opposition unity talks among figures like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior remain stalled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : Marge de victoire
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.8%
$13,705 Vol.
$13,705 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
26%
Victoire de Renan Santos
6%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
2%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
4%
Autre
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.8%
$13,705 Vol.
$13,705 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,535 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15 %
$1,298 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$1,684 Vol.
19%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,558 Vol.
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro +10 %
$663 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$666 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,386 Vol.
26%
Victoire de Renan Santos
$796 Vol.
6%
Victoire de Tarcisio de Freitas
$509 Vol.
2%
Victoire de Ratinho Júnior
$796 Vol.
4%
Autre
$814 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polls from Datafolha and Quaest depict a tight first-round presidential race, with incumbent Lula da Silva hovering around 42-45% support against fragmented opposition totaling 35-40%, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 36% implied probability. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his rising visibility as a potential right-wing frontrunner amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing legal battles and ineligibility. Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 18.5%, underscoring economic headwinds like inflation and his dipping approval ratings below 50%. No candidate has secured a first-round majority in simulations, heightening runoff risks, while candidate registration deadlines in 2026 loom as key catalysts. Opposition unity talks among figures like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior remain stalled.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$13,705Date de fin
Oct 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polls from Datafolha and Quaest depict a tight first-round presidential race, with incumbent Lula da Silva hovering around 42-45% support against fragmented opposition totaling 35-40%, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 36% implied probability. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his rising visibility as a potential right-wing frontrunner amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing legal battles and ineligibility. Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 18.5%, underscoring economic headwinds like inflation and his dipping approval ratings below 50%. No candidate has secured a first-round majority in simulations, heightening runoff risks, while candidate registration deadlines in 2026 loom as key catalysts. Opposition unity talks among figures like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior remain stalled.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,705Date de fin
Oct 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Brazilian polls from Datafolha and Quaest depict a tight first-round presidential race, with incumbent Lula da Silva hovering around 42-45% support against fragmented opposition totaling 35-40%, driving trader consensus toward a narrow Lula victory margin under 5% at 36% implied probability. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% outcome at 25.5% reflects his rising visibility as a potential right-wing frontrunner amid Jair Bolsonaro's ongoing legal battles and ineligibility. Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 18.5%, underscoring economic headwinds like inflation and his dipping approval ratings below 50%. No candidate has secured a first-round majority in simulations, heightening runoff risks, while candidate registration deadlines in 2026 loom as key catalysts. Opposition unity talks among figures like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ratinho Júnior remain stalled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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