Trader consensus prices Historic Pact Senator Iván Cepeda Castro as overwhelming first-round favorite on May 31, driven by his coalition's top performance in the March 8 congressional elections, securing the largest Senate and House blocs without a majority. Recent March polls average Cepeda at 35-37%—well ahead of center-right Paloma Valencia (20-22%) and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (2-3%)—reflecting opposition fragmentation across multiple candidates that favors his plurality path to the June 21 runoff. No April polls have emerged, but VP announcements like Cepeda's indigenous running mate Aida Quilcué and steady campaign momentum underpin the pricing, though endorsements, scandals, or turnout shifts could alter dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur du 1er tour de l'élection présidentielle colombienne ?
Vainqueur du 1er tour de l'élection présidentielle colombienne ?
Iván Cepeda Castro 87%
Abelardo de la Espriella 6.9%
Paloma Valencia 4.0%
Sergio Fajardo <1%
$1,972,476 Vol.
$1,972,476 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
87%
Abelardo de la Espriella
7%
Paloma Valencia
4%
Sergio Fajardo
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
<1%
Vicky Dávila
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
<1%
Claudia López
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
<1%
Roy Barreras
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 87%
Abelardo de la Espriella 6.9%
Paloma Valencia 4.0%
Sergio Fajardo <1%
$1,972,476 Vol.
$1,972,476 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$73,580 Vol.
87%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$486,940 Vol.
7%
Paloma Valencia
$218,143 Vol.
4%
Sergio Fajardo
$72,044 Vol.
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$89,503 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$158,053 Vol.
<1%
Vicky Dávila
$249,019 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$45,952 Vol.
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$85,094 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$46,223 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$31,308 Vol.
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$102,128 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$62,638 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$58,124 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$82,844 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$35,681 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$38,697 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus prices Historic Pact Senator Iván Cepeda Castro as overwhelming first-round favorite on May 31, driven by his coalition's top performance in the March 8 congressional elections, securing the largest Senate and House blocs without a majority. Recent March polls average Cepeda at 35-37%—well ahead of center-right Paloma Valencia (20-22%) and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (2-3%)—reflecting opposition fragmentation across multiple candidates that favors his plurality path to the June 21 runoff. No April polls have emerged, but VP announcements like Cepeda's indigenous running mate Aida Quilcué and steady campaign momentum underpin the pricing, though endorsements, scandals, or turnout shifts could alter dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,972,476Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus prices Historic Pact Senator Iván Cepeda Castro as overwhelming first-round favorite on May 31, driven by his coalition's top performance in the March 8 congressional elections, securing the largest Senate and House blocs without a majority. Recent March polls average Cepeda at 35-37%—well ahead of center-right Paloma Valencia (20-22%) and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (2-3%)—reflecting opposition fragmentation across multiple candidates that favors his plurality path to the June 21 runoff. No April polls have emerged, but VP announcements like Cepeda's indigenous running mate Aida Quilcué and steady campaign momentum underpin the pricing, though endorsements, scandals, or turnout shifts could alter dynamics.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,972,476Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Historic Pact Senator Iván Cepeda Castro as overwhelming first-round favorite on May 31, driven by his coalition's top performance in the March 8 congressional elections, securing the largest Senate and House blocs without a majority. Recent March polls average Cepeda at 35-37%—well ahead of center-right Paloma Valencia (20-22%) and far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella (2-3%)—reflecting opposition fragmentation across multiple candidates that favors his plurality path to the June 21 runoff. No April polls have emerged, but VP announcements like Cepeda's indigenous running mate Aida Quilcué and steady campaign momentum underpin the pricing, though endorsements, scandals, or turnout shifts could alter dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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