Recent polls from Guarumo, CNC, and others conducted in late March 2026 show Iván Cepeda maintaining a commanding first-round lead at 35-40% voting intention, far ahead of Paloma Valencia (around 20%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), reflecting trader consensus on his 86% implied probability to secure plurality on May 31. The left-wing Historic Pact's strong performance in March 8 legislative elections, securing the most congressional seats without a majority, bolstered Cepeda's momentum as the party's chosen candidate via primaries. Right-wing fragmentation persists post-party consultations, limiting challengers despite Valencia's gains, though a unified opposition or scandals could narrow the gap ahead of the runoff if needed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur du 1er tour de l'élection présidentielle colombienne ?
Vainqueur du 1er tour de l'élection présidentielle colombienne ?
Iván Cepeda Castro 86%
Paloma Valencia 9.2%
Abelardo de la Espriella 2.1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$1,850,087 Vol.
$1,850,087 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
86%
Paloma Valencia
9%
Abelardo de la Espriella
2%
Vicky Dávila
1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
1%
Gustavo Bolívar
1%
Sergio Fajardo
1%
Juan Manuel Galán
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Claudia López
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
<1%
Roy Barreras
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Iván Cepeda Castro 86%
Paloma Valencia 9.2%
Abelardo de la Espriella 2.1%
Vicky Dávila <1%
$1,850,087 Vol.
$1,850,087 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro
$61,534 Vol.
86%
Paloma Valencia
$211,400 Vol.
9%
Abelardo de la Espriella
$472,310 Vol.
2%
Vicky Dávila
$244,417 Vol.
1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo
$96,012 Vol.
1%
Gustavo Bolívar
$79,584 Vol.
1%
Sergio Fajardo
$66,564 Vol.
1%
Juan Manuel Galán
$83,837 Vol.
<1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
$39,897 Vol.
<1%
Claudia López
$57,318 Vol.
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo
$36,560 Vol.
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
$25,601 Vol.
<1%
David Luna Sánchez
$152,585 Vol.
<1%
Roy Barreras
$77,115 Vol.
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras
$50,893 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Quintero
$28,616 Vol.
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
$32,823 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Recent polls from Guarumo, CNC, and others conducted in late March 2026 show Iván Cepeda maintaining a commanding first-round lead at 35-40% voting intention, far ahead of Paloma Valencia (around 20%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), reflecting trader consensus on his 86% implied probability to secure plurality on May 31. The left-wing Historic Pact's strong performance in March 8 legislative elections, securing the most congressional seats without a majority, bolstered Cepeda's momentum as the party's chosen candidate via primaries. Right-wing fragmentation persists post-party consultations, limiting challengers despite Valencia's gains, though a unified opposition or scandals could narrow the gap ahead of the runoff if needed.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,850,087Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Recent polls from Guarumo, CNC, and others conducted in late March 2026 show Iván Cepeda maintaining a commanding first-round lead at 35-40% voting intention, far ahead of Paloma Valencia (around 20%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), reflecting trader consensus on his 86% implied probability to secure plurality on May 31. The left-wing Historic Pact's strong performance in March 8 legislative elections, securing the most congressional seats without a majority, bolstered Cepeda's momentum as the party's chosen candidate via primaries. Right-wing fragmentation persists post-party consultations, limiting challengers despite Valencia's gains, though a unified opposition or scandals could narrow the gap ahead of the runoff if needed.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,850,087Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Guarumo, CNC, and others conducted in late March 2026 show Iván Cepeda maintaining a commanding first-round lead at 35-40% voting intention, far ahead of Paloma Valencia (around 20%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (15-20%), reflecting trader consensus on his 86% implied probability to secure plurality on May 31. The left-wing Historic Pact's strong performance in March 8 legislative elections, securing the most congressional seats without a majority, bolstered Cepeda's momentum as the party's chosen candidate via primaries. Right-wing fragmentation persists post-party consultations, limiting challengers despite Valencia's gains, though a unified opposition or scandals could narrow the gap ahead of the runoff if needed.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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