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Élections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Market icon
Élections·Canada

University—Rosedale By-Election Winner

Danielle Martin 98.8%

Don Hodgson <1%

Andy D’Andrea <1%

Imran Khan <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$27,339 Vol.

Danielle Martin 98.8%

Don Hodgson <1%

Andy D’Andrea <1%

Imran Khan <1%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

$27,339 Vol.

Market icon

Danielle Martin

$23,000 Vol.

99%

Market icon

Don Hodgson

$485 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Andy D’Andrea

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Imran Khan

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Leslie Bory

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Bill Whatcott

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Samuel Baxter

$481 Vol.

<1%

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Raiden DeDominicis

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Andrew Massey

$481 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Serena Purdy

$486 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Trader consensus heavily favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 98.7% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, reflecting the riding's longstanding status as a Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party secured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election amid low Conservative (23.5%) and NDP (9.9%) support. Family physician and health leader Martin's nomination in late January, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's campaign visits and robust canvassing, has solidified her position against a fragmented field including Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP's Serena Purdy, and several independents or minor party challengers like Bill Whatcott. Advance polls opened April 3 with no reported shifts, underscoring historical base rates for safe seat retention in low-turnout by-elections. Upsets would require a late scandal, voter mobilization surge, or Freeland-era backlash, though structural advantages make these improbable before resolution via official Elections Canada results.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$27,339
Date de fin
13 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).Trader consensus heavily favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 98.7% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, reflecting the riding's longstanding status as a Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party secured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election amid low Conservative (23.5%) and NDP (9.9%) support. Family physician and health leader Martin's nomination in late January, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's campaign visits and robust canvassing, has solidified her position against a fragmented field including Conservative Don Hodgson, NDP's Serena Purdy, and several independents or minor party challengers like Bill Whatcott. Advance polls opened April 3 with no reported shifts, underscoring historical base rates for safe seat retention in low-turnout by-elections. Upsets would require a late scandal, voter mobilization surge, or Freeland-era backlash, though structural advantages make these improbable before resolution via official Elections Canada results.

A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$27,339
Date de fin
13 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the seat of University—Rosedale, Ontario in the House of Commons of Canada is currently scheduled to be held on April 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

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Questions fréquentes

« University—Rosedale By-Election Winner » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 10 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Danielle Martin » à 99%, suivi de « Don Hodgson » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 99¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « University—Rosedale By-Election Winner » a généré $27.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 3, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « University—Rosedale By-Election Winner », parcourez les 10 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « University—Rosedale By-Election Winner » est « Danielle Martin » à 99%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 99% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Don Hodgson » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « University—Rosedale By-Election Winner » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.