Trader consensus favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory by 9% or more at 35.5%, driven by recent independent polls like Medián's March 17-20 survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead that widened from prior readings. Opposition-leaning surveys, including IDEA's late-March data with Tisza at 49% to Fidesz-KDNP's 37%, outweigh pro-government polls claiming Fidesz leads, reflecting Péter Magyar's momentum from massive March 15 rallies amid voter intimidation allegations against Orbán's camp. With the April 12 parliamentary election 13 days away under Hungary's mixed majoritarian system, where popular vote margins signal but do not guarantee seats due to gerrymandering and first-past-the-post districts, traders price in Tisza's sustained polling edge despite uncertainties like turnout and rural mobilization.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourTisza +9 % 36%
Tisza 6-9 % 20%
Tisza 3-6 % 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,175,513 Vol.
$1,175,513 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza +9 %
36%
Tisza 6-9 %
20%
Tisza 3-6 %
18%
Tisza 0-3 %
7%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6 %
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9 %
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
6%
Autre
<1%
Tisza +9 % 36%
Tisza 6-9 % 20%
Tisza 3-6 % 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,175,513 Vol.
$1,175,513 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza +9 %
$62,984 Vol.
36%
Tisza 6-9 %
$15,299 Vol.
20%
Tisza 3-6 %
$38,447 Vol.
18%
Tisza 0-3 %
$22,169 Vol.
7%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$50,184 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6 %
$46,896 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9 %
$436,897 Vol.
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$487,300 Vol.
6%
Autre
$15,339 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory by 9% or more at 35.5%, driven by recent independent polls like Medián's March 17-20 survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead that widened from prior readings. Opposition-leaning surveys, including IDEA's late-March data with Tisza at 49% to Fidesz-KDNP's 37%, outweigh pro-government polls claiming Fidesz leads, reflecting Péter Magyar's momentum from massive March 15 rallies amid voter intimidation allegations against Orbán's camp. With the April 12 parliamentary election 13 days away under Hungary's mixed majoritarian system, where popular vote margins signal but do not guarantee seats due to gerrymandering and first-past-the-post districts, traders price in Tisza's sustained polling edge despite uncertainties like turnout and rural mobilization.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Marché ouvert : Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,175,513Date de fin
Apr 12, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Trader consensus favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory by 9% or more at 35.5%, driven by recent independent polls like Medián's March 17-20 survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead that widened from prior readings. Opposition-leaning surveys, including IDEA's late-March data with Tisza at 49% to Fidesz-KDNP's 37%, outweigh pro-government polls claiming Fidesz leads, reflecting Péter Magyar's momentum from massive March 15 rallies amid voter intimidation allegations against Orbán's camp. With the April 12 parliamentary election 13 days away under Hungary's mixed majoritarian system, where popular vote margins signal but do not guarantee seats due to gerrymandering and first-past-the-post districts, traders price in Tisza's sustained polling edge despite uncertainties like turnout and rural mobilization.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,175,513Date de fin
Apr 12, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Tisza Party popular vote victory by 9% or more at 35.5%, driven by recent independent polls like Medián's March 17-20 survey showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead that widened from prior readings. Opposition-leaning surveys, including IDEA's late-March data with Tisza at 49% to Fidesz-KDNP's 37%, outweigh pro-government polls claiming Fidesz leads, reflecting Péter Magyar's momentum from massive March 15 rallies amid voter intimidation allegations against Orbán's camp. With the April 12 parliamentary election 13 days away under Hungary's mixed majoritarian system, where popular vote margins signal but do not guarantee seats due to gerrymandering and first-past-the-post districts, traders price in Tisza's sustained polling edge despite uncertainties like turnout and rural mobilization.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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