Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains a Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice stems from entrenched institutional protections for justices, who serve until age 75 absent rare impeachment by the Senate following Chamber admission. Recent revelations in the Banco Master scandal—linking Moraes to banker Daniel Vorcaro's private jets and messages—have spurred 102 impeachment petitions against STF ministers in 2026, with Moraes prominent, alongside a U.S. House report decrying his global censorship orders. Yet, the STF halted the related INSS fraud probe 8-2 in late March, no requests have progressed, and opposition lacks votes amid upcoming October Senate elections. Ongoing partisan pressure has not shifted procedural momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
Oui
$17,403 Vol.
$17,403 Vol.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 82% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains a Supreme Federal Court (STF) justice stems from entrenched institutional protections for justices, who serve until age 75 absent rare impeachment by the Senate following Chamber admission. Recent revelations in the Banco Master scandal—linking Moraes to banker Daniel Vorcaro's private jets and messages—have spurred 102 impeachment petitions against STF ministers in 2026, with Moraes prominent, alongside a U.S. House report decrying his global censorship orders. Yet, the STF halted the related INSS fraud probe 8-2 in late March, no requests have progressed, and opposition lacks votes amid upcoming October Senate elections. Ongoing partisan pressure has not shifted procedural momentum.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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