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L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ?

Market icon

L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ?

Apr 15

Apr 15

$73,042 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$73,042 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$15,314 Vol.

44%

15 avril

$1 Vol.

51%

On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties, such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2,” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet). Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's military intelligence and security service have sustained naval drone strikes against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Black Sea, disrupting sanctioned petroleum exports amid the ongoing conflict. The latest verified attack on September 11 damaged a tanker approximately 10 miles from Sevastopol, following similar hits in late August on vessels near Crimea and Novorossiysk that forced some ships to relocate. Russian forces have bolstered air defenses and relocated warships, raising operational risks for Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels like the Magura V5. Trader consensus weighs Ukraine's drone production surge against intensified countermeasures, with potential escalation from frontline shifts or diplomatic moves on energy corridors influencing near-term strike likelihood.

Ukraine's military intelligence and security service have sustained naval drone strikes against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Black Sea, disrupting sanctioned petroleum exports amid the ongoing conflict. The latest verified attack on September 11 damaged a tanker approximately 10 miles from Sevastopol, following similar hits in late August on vessels near Crimea and Novorossiysk that forced some ships to relocate. Russian forces have bolstered air defenses and relocated warships, raising operational risks for Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels like the Magura V5. Trader consensus weighs Ukraine's drone production surge against intensified countermeasures, with potential escalation from frontline shifts or diplomatic moves on energy corridors influencing near-term strike likelihood.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
On December 10, 2025, Ukraine hit and disabled "Dashan," a tanker involved in trading Russian oil, as it sailed through Ukraine's exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea to the Russian port of Novorossiysk. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-disables-shadow-fleet-vessel-with-sea-drones-black-sea-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any tanker in the Black Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties, such as Turkey, including the December 2 incident involving the tanker "Midvolga-2,” will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/2/russian-tanker-struck-off-turkiye-as-ukraine-targets-shadow-fleet). Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's military intelligence and security service have sustained naval drone strikes against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Black Sea, disrupting sanctioned petroleum exports amid the ongoing conflict. The latest verified attack on September 11 damaged a tanker approximately 10 miles from Sevastopol, following similar hits in late August on vessels near Crimea and Novorossiysk that forced some ships to relocate. Russian forces have bolstered air defenses and relocated warships, raising operational risks for Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels like the Magura V5. Trader consensus weighs Ukraine's drone production surge against intensified countermeasures, with potential escalation from frontline shifts or diplomatic moves on energy corridors influencing near-term strike likelihood.

Ukraine's military intelligence and security service have sustained naval drone strikes against Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers in the Black Sea, disrupting sanctioned petroleum exports amid the ongoing conflict. The latest verified attack on September 11 damaged a tanker approximately 10 miles from Sevastopol, following similar hits in late August on vessels near Crimea and Novorossiysk that forced some ships to relocate. Russian forces have bolstered air defenses and relocated warships, raising operational risks for Ukraine's uncrewed surface vessels like the Magura V5. Trader consensus weighs Ukraine's drone production surge against intensified countermeasures, with potential escalation from frontline shifts or diplomatic moves on energy corridors influencing near-term strike likelihood.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 15 avril » à 51%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 51¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 51% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ? » a généré $73K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 13, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ? » est « 15 avril » à 51%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 51% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'Ukraine frappe un autre pétrolier en mer Noire par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.