Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts amid unresolved territorial disputes like Donbas control. Russian forces pressed offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts through March 26, launching nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, while Ukrainian counterstrikes targeted Russian assets. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks paused after March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow on March 26 expressing hope for resumption but insisting on preconditions. Zelenskiy remains open to dialogue, yet front-line clashes persist, underscoring high barriers to any near-term halt. Late diplomatic surges or external pressures could shift dynamics, though none appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRussie x Ukraine cessez-le-feu d'ici le 30 avril 2026 ?
Russie x Ukraine cessez-le-feu d'ici le 30 avril 2026 ?
Oui
$1,028,668 Vol.
$1,028,668 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Oui
$1,028,668 Vol.
$1,028,668 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts amid unresolved territorial disputes like Donbas control. Russian forces pressed offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts through March 26, launching nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, while Ukrainian counterstrikes targeted Russian assets. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks paused after March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow on March 26 expressing hope for resumption but insisting on preconditions. Zelenskiy remains open to dialogue, yet front-line clashes persist, underscoring high barriers to any near-term halt. Late diplomatic surges or external pressures could shift dynamics, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,028,668Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts amid unresolved territorial disputes like Donbas control. Russian forces pressed offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts through March 26, launching nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, while Ukrainian counterstrikes targeted Russian assets. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks paused after March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow on March 26 expressing hope for resumption but insisting on preconditions. Zelenskiy remains open to dialogue, yet front-line clashes persist, underscoring high barriers to any near-term halt. Late diplomatic surges or external pressures could shift dynamics, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,028,668Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched military escalation and stalled diplomatic efforts amid unresolved territorial disputes like Donbas control. Russian forces pressed offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts through March 26, launching nearly 1,000 drones and missiles on March 23-24, while Ukrainian counterstrikes targeted Russian assets. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks paused after March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow on March 26 expressing hope for resumption but insisting on preconditions. Zelenskiy remains open to dialogue, yet front-line clashes persist, underscoring high barriers to any near-term halt. Late diplomatic surges or external pressures could shift dynamics, though none appear imminent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes