Market icon
Monde·Pologne

La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ?

Market icon
Monde·Pologne

La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ?

$3,692,392 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$3,692,392 Vol.

Polymarket

30 juin 2026

$2,242,600 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus implies just a 5% chance of Russia invading a NATO country by June 30, 2026, driven by Moscow's military resources remaining heavily committed to the protracted Ukraine invasion, with no verified troop redeployments or escalatory signals toward the eastern flank like the Baltics or Poland. Early March Lithuanian intelligence warned of Russian border unit expansions and GRU shifts to destructive kinetic operations, potentially enabling conflict in six years absent sustained sanctions, but these assessments emphasize long-term risks rather than imminent threats. NATO's ongoing fortifications, including enhanced commands in northern Europe, reinforce deterrence amid diplomatic rhetoric from both sides, with Ukraine battlefield developments and alliance summits as key near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.

Trader consensus implies just a 5% chance of Russia invading a NATO country by June 30, 2026, driven by Moscow's military resources remaining heavily committed to the protracted Ukraine invasion, with no verified troop redeployments or escalatory signals toward the eastern flank like the Baltics or Poland. Early March Lithuanian intelligence warned of Russian border unit expansions and GRU shifts to destructive kinetic operations, potentially enabling conflict in six years absent sustained sanctions, but these assessments emphasize long-term risks rather than imminent threats. NATO's ongoing fortifications, including enhanced commands in northern Europe, reinforce deterrence amid diplomatic rhetoric from both sides, with Ukraine battlefield developments and alliance summits as key near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus implies just a 5% chance of Russia invading a NATO country by June 30, 2026, driven by Moscow's military resources remaining heavily committed to the protracted Ukraine invasion, with no verified troop redeployments or escalatory signals toward the eastern flank like the Baltics or Poland. Early March Lithuanian intelligence warned of Russian border unit expansions and GRU shifts to destructive kinetic operations, potentially enabling conflict in six years absent sustained sanctions, but these assessments emphasize long-term risks rather than imminent threats. NATO's ongoing fortifications, including enhanced commands in northern Europe, reinforce deterrence amid diplomatic rhetoric from both sides, with Ukraine battlefield developments and alliance summits as key near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.

Trader consensus implies just a 5% chance of Russia invading a NATO country by June 30, 2026, driven by Moscow's military resources remaining heavily committed to the protracted Ukraine invasion, with no verified troop redeployments or escalatory signals toward the eastern flank like the Baltics or Poland. Early March Lithuanian intelligence warned of Russian border unit expansions and GRU shifts to destructive kinetic operations, potentially enabling conflict in six years absent sustained sanctions, but these assessments emphasize long-term risks rather than imminent threats. NATO's ongoing fortifications, including enhanced commands in northern Europe, reinforce deterrence amid diplomatic rhetoric from both sides, with Ukraine battlefield developments and alliance summits as key near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 30 juin 2026 » à 5%, suivi de « 31 décembre 2025 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 5¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 5% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » a généré $3.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 28, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » est « 30 juin 2026 » à seulement 5%, avec « 31 décembre 2025 » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.