10-year Treasury yields have surged to around 4.45%—the highest since May—driven by post-election repricing of fiscal expansion under President-elect Trump, including tax cuts, tariffs, and deregulation that could stoke inflation and widen deficits. This follows resilient October CPI data showing core inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target, and a robust labor market with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Markets now imply fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with fed funds futures pricing the policy rate near 4% by year-end. Key catalysts ahead include December 11 CPI release, December 18 FOMC meeting, and January 2025 nonfarm payrolls, which could push yields toward 5% if inflation reaccelerates or growth exceeds forecasts. Prediction markets aggregate trader capital to reflect these dynamics, pricing peak probabilities before 2027 resolution.