Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s February 2026 assassination has centered trader attention on his limited public profile and persistent health speculation. Iranian state media released an undated video of him on August 10 amid Israeli reports of serious illness requiring hospitalization, while President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed his “perfect health.” The regime’s emphasis on attributed statements and controlled imagery reflects efforts to project continuity amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict and internal cohesion challenges. Potential catalysts include further verified appearances, medical disclosures, or shifts in wartime conditions that could prompt travel for treatment or security reasons, though constitutional requirements for the Supreme Leader position limit routine departures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$102,131 Vol.
31 août 2026
31 août
1%
$102,131 Vol.
31 août
$60,229 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s February 2026 assassination has centered trader attention on his limited public profile and persistent health speculation. Iranian state media released an undated video of him on August 10 amid Israeli reports of serious illness requiring hospitalization, while President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed his “perfect health.” The regime’s emphasis on attributed statements and controlled imagery reflects efforts to project continuity amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict and internal cohesion challenges. Potential catalysts include further verified appearances, medical disclosures, or shifts in wartime conditions that could prompt travel for treatment or security reasons, though constitutional requirements for the Supreme Leader position limit routine departures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$102,131Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s February 2026 assassination has centered trader attention on his limited public profile and persistent health speculation. Iranian state media released an undated video of him on August 10 amid Israeli reports of serious illness requiring hospitalization, while President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed his “perfect health.” The regime’s emphasis on attributed statements and controlled imagery reflects efforts to project continuity amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict and internal cohesion challenges. Potential catalysts include further verified appearances, medical disclosures, or shifts in wartime conditions that could prompt travel for treatment or security reasons, though constitutional requirements for the Supreme Leader position limit routine departures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$102,131Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei’s elevation as Iran’s Supreme Leader following his father’s February 2026 assassination has centered trader attention on his limited public profile and persistent health speculation. Iranian state media released an undated video of him on August 10 amid Israeli reports of serious illness requiring hospitalization, while President Masoud Pezeshkian affirmed his “perfect health.” The regime’s emphasis on attributed statements and controlled imagery reflects efforts to project continuity amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict and internal cohesion challenges. Potential catalysts include further verified appearances, medical disclosures, or shifts in wartime conditions that could prompt travel for treatment or security reasons, though constitutional requirements for the Supreme Leader position limit routine departures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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