Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's firm red lines against concessions, reiterated in recent addresses and negotiations insisting on full sovereignty over Crimea, Donbas, and occupied areas. U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks, including the March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meeting in Florida, concluded without territorial breakthroughs, focusing instead on sustained pressure via aid amid stalled progress and a March 19 pause due to global escalations. Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas remain a core impasse, with Kyiv prioritizing battlefield resilience and liberation over compromise, leaving pre-2027 agreement unlikely barring dramatic diplomatic or military shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ?
L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ?
Oui
$524,888 Vol.
$524,888 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$524,888 Vol.
$524,888 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's firm red lines against concessions, reiterated in recent addresses and negotiations insisting on full sovereignty over Crimea, Donbas, and occupied areas. U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks, including the March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meeting in Florida, concluded without territorial breakthroughs, focusing instead on sustained pressure via aid amid stalled progress and a March 19 pause due to global escalations. Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas remain a core impasse, with Kyiv prioritizing battlefield resilience and liberation over compromise, leaving pre-2027 agreement unlikely barring dramatic diplomatic or military shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
Volume
$524,888Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's firm red lines against concessions, reiterated in recent addresses and negotiations insisting on full sovereignty over Crimea, Donbas, and occupied areas. U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks, including the March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meeting in Florida, concluded without territorial breakthroughs, focusing instead on sustained pressure via aid amid stalled progress and a March 19 pause due to global escalations. Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas remain a core impasse, with Kyiv prioritizing battlefield resilience and liberation over compromise, leaving pre-2027 agreement unlikely barring dramatic diplomatic or military shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$524,888Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's firm red lines against concessions, reiterated in recent addresses and negotiations insisting on full sovereignty over Crimea, Donbas, and occupied areas. U.S.-brokered trilateral peace talks, including the March 22 Ukraine-U.S. meeting in Florida, concluded without territorial breakthroughs, focusing instead on sustained pressure via aid amid stalled progress and a March 19 pause due to global escalations. Russia's demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas remain a core impasse, with Kyiv prioritizing battlefield resilience and liberation over compromise, leaving pre-2027 agreement unlikely barring dramatic diplomatic or military shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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