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L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ?

Market icon

L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Oui

22% chance
Polymarket

$525,109 Vol.

Oui

22% chance
Polymarket

$525,109 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly reaffirmed Kyiv's refusal to cede any territory to Russia, most recently resisting reported U.S. pressure under the Trump administration to relinquish the Donbas region as a precondition for security guarantees and ceasefire in ongoing peace talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified on March 27 that guarantees would only apply post-war, implying concessions are needed to end hostilities, but Zelenskyy labeled this as undue pressure on Ukraine rather than Moscow. With Russian demands remaining maximalist—including full control over annexed areas—and no compromise reached in recent negotiation rounds, trader consensus reflects low odds of agreement before 2027 amid Ukraine's firm stance on territorial integrity and continued European support against concessions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly reaffirmed Kyiv's refusal to cede any territory to Russia, most recently resisting reported U.S. pressure under the Trump administration to relinquish the Donbas region as a precondition for security guarantees and ceasefire in ongoing peace talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified on March 27 that guarantees would only apply post-war, implying concessions are needed to end hostilities, but Zelenskyy labeled this as undue pressure on Ukraine rather than Moscow. With Russian demands remaining maximalist—including full control over annexed areas—and no compromise reached in recent negotiation rounds, trader consensus reflects low odds of agreement before 2027 amid Ukraine's firm stance on territorial integrity and continued European support against concessions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly reaffirmed Kyiv's refusal to cede any territory to Russia, most recently resisting reported U.S. pressure under the Trump administration to relinquish the Donbas region as a precondition for security guarantees and ceasefire in ongoing peace talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified on March 27 that guarantees would only apply post-war, implying concessions are needed to end hostilities, but Zelenskyy labeled this as undue pressure on Ukraine rather than Moscow. With Russian demands remaining maximalist—including full control over annexed areas—and no compromise reached in recent negotiation rounds, trader consensus reflects low odds of agreement before 2027 amid Ukraine's firm stance on territorial integrity and continued European support against concessions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly reaffirmed Kyiv's refusal to cede any territory to Russia, most recently resisting reported U.S. pressure under the Trump administration to relinquish the Donbas region as a precondition for security guarantees and ceasefire in ongoing peace talks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified on March 27 that guarantees would only apply post-war, implying concessions are needed to end hostilities, but Zelenskyy labeled this as undue pressure on Ukraine rather than Moscow. With Russian demands remaining maximalist—including full control over annexed areas—and no compromise reached in recent negotiation rounds, trader consensus reflects low odds of agreement before 2027 amid Ukraine's firm stance on territorial integrity and continued European support against concessions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ? » à 22%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 22¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ? » a généré $525.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ? » est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder du territoire à la Russie avant 2027 ? » à 22%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 22% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder des territoires à la Russie avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.