The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$795,370 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
6%
$795,370 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,639 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,370Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,370Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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