The Trump administration's signals to resume U.S. nuclear testing after a 33-year moratorium, initiated by President Trump's October 2025 Pentagon directive, continue to drive debate, but recent State Department statements on March 24 affirm ongoing assessments of underground test methods without a timeline or atmospheric plans. This follows disclosures of preparations responding to covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, amid congressional opposition letters and a fiscal 2026 defense bill authorizing resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term detonations like by March 31, due to logistical challenges at sites like Nevada Test Site, CTBT signatory status, and no scheduled events, though New START's February 2026 expiration could escalate pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$584,459 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 mars 2026
<1%
$584,459 Vol.
31 mars 2026
$290,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's signals to resume U.S. nuclear testing after a 33-year moratorium, initiated by President Trump's October 2025 Pentagon directive, continue to drive debate, but recent State Department statements on March 24 affirm ongoing assessments of underground test methods without a timeline or atmospheric plans. This follows disclosures of preparations responding to covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, amid congressional opposition letters and a fiscal 2026 defense bill authorizing resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term detonations like by March 31, due to logistical challenges at sites like Nevada Test Site, CTBT signatory status, and no scheduled events, though New START's February 2026 expiration could escalate pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's signals to resume U.S. nuclear testing after a 33-year moratorium, initiated by President Trump's October 2025 Pentagon directive, continue to drive debate, but recent State Department statements on March 24 affirm ongoing assessments of underground test methods without a timeline or atmospheric plans. This follows disclosures of preparations responding to covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, amid congressional opposition letters and a fiscal 2026 defense bill authorizing resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term detonations like by March 31, due to logistical challenges at sites like Nevada Test Site, CTBT signatory status, and no scheduled events, though New START's February 2026 expiration could escalate pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's signals to resume U.S. nuclear testing after a 33-year moratorium, initiated by President Trump's October 2025 Pentagon directive, continue to drive debate, but recent State Department statements on March 24 affirm ongoing assessments of underground test methods without a timeline or atmospheric plans. This follows disclosures of preparations responding to covert Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, amid congressional opposition letters and a fiscal 2026 defense bill authorizing resumption. Trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for near-term detonations like by March 31, due to logistical challenges at sites like Nevada Test Site, CTBT signatory status, and no scheduled events, though New START's February 2026 expiration could escalate pressures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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