The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputer simulations to certify warhead reliability. Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test by March 31, 2026, at under 1%, reflecting no imminent preparations despite Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24 Senate testimony that the Trump administration is assessing resumption methods following the president's October 2025 order—prompted by alleged covert low-yield tests by Russia and China. Significant technical, political, and diplomatic barriers persist, including FY2024 NDAA requirements for 12-month readiness and potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty fallout, with no scheduled tests or policy deadlines in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$584,459 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 mars 2026
<1%
$584,459 Vol.
31 mars 2026
$290,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputer simulations to certify warhead reliability. Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test by March 31, 2026, at under 1%, reflecting no imminent preparations despite Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24 Senate testimony that the Trump administration is assessing resumption methods following the president's October 2025 order—prompted by alleged covert low-yield tests by Russia and China. Significant technical, political, and diplomatic barriers persist, including FY2024 NDAA requirements for 12-month readiness and potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty fallout, with no scheduled tests or policy deadlines in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputer simulations to certify warhead reliability. Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test by March 31, 2026, at under 1%, reflecting no imminent preparations despite Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24 Senate testimony that the Trump administration is assessing resumption methods following the president's October 2025 order—prompted by alleged covert low-yield tests by Russia and China. Significant technical, political, and diplomatic barriers persist, including FY2024 NDAA requirements for 12-month readiness and potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty fallout, with no scheduled tests or policy deadlines in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's supercomputer simulations to certify warhead reliability. Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test by March 31, 2026, at under 1%, reflecting no imminent preparations despite Undersecretary of State Thomas DiNanno's March 24 Senate testimony that the Trump administration is assessing resumption methods following the president's October 2025 order—prompted by alleged covert low-yield tests by Russia and China. Significant technical, political, and diplomatic barriers persist, including FY2024 NDAA requirements for 12-month readiness and potential Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty fallout, with no scheduled tests or policy deadlines in the near term.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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