President Donald Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the resumption of U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations introduced significant uncertainty, prompting immediate clarification from the Department of Energy that any activities would involve non-explosive simulations rather than yield-producing detonations. The United States has observed its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for certification. Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-capable delivery systems and U.S. intelligence concerns over possible Chinese low-yield experiments have fueled debate, while the expiration of New START in February 2026 removed the last bilateral limits on strategic arsenals. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval for any explosive test and ongoing diplomatic signaling between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing remain key variables that could shape whether any underground test occurs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$666,780 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
3%
30 septembre 2026
5%
31 décembre 2026
9%
$666,780 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$40,037 Vol.
3%
30 septembre 2026
$6,052 Vol.
5%
31 décembre 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the resumption of U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations introduced significant uncertainty, prompting immediate clarification from the Department of Energy that any activities would involve non-explosive simulations rather than yield-producing detonations. The United States has observed its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for certification. Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-capable delivery systems and U.S. intelligence concerns over possible Chinese low-yield experiments have fueled debate, while the expiration of New START in February 2026 removed the last bilateral limits on strategic arsenals. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval for any explosive test and ongoing diplomatic signaling between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing remain key variables that could shape whether any underground test occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$666,780Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the resumption of U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations introduced significant uncertainty, prompting immediate clarification from the Department of Energy that any activities would involve non-explosive simulations rather than yield-producing detonations. The United States has observed its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for certification. Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-capable delivery systems and U.S. intelligence concerns over possible Chinese low-yield experiments have fueled debate, while the expiration of New START in February 2026 removed the last bilateral limits on strategic arsenals. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval for any explosive test and ongoing diplomatic signaling between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing remain key variables that could shape whether any underground test occurs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$666,780Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the resumption of U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nations introduced significant uncertainty, prompting immediate clarification from the Department of Energy that any activities would involve non-explosive simulations rather than yield-producing detonations. The United States has observed its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on stockpile stewardship programs for certification. Russia’s recent tests of nuclear-capable delivery systems and U.S. intelligence concerns over possible Chinese low-yield experiments have fueled debate, while the expiration of New START in February 2026 removed the last bilateral limits on strategic arsenals. Proposed legislation requiring congressional approval for any explosive test and ongoing diplomatic signaling between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing remain key variables that could shape whether any underground test occurs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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