Trader consensus prices a mere 3% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 11% by year-end, reflecting persistent hurdles despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium and Congress's December 2025 authorization of FY2026 funding for underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Preparations by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration continue without an announced detonation date, bolstered by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations that labs deem sufficient for arsenal maintenance. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head's warning to the U.S., Russia, and China against resumption highlights intensifying diplomatic pressure amid alleged adversary activities, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Upcoming congressional oversight and budget debates could influence timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$658,461 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
3%
30 septembre 2026
6%
31 décembre 2026
10%
$658,461 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$33,298 Vol.
3%
30 septembre 2026
$5,552 Vol.
6%
31 décembre 2026
$9,392 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 3% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 11% by year-end, reflecting persistent hurdles despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium and Congress's December 2025 authorization of FY2026 funding for underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Preparations by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration continue without an announced detonation date, bolstered by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations that labs deem sufficient for arsenal maintenance. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head's warning to the U.S., Russia, and China against resumption highlights intensifying diplomatic pressure amid alleged adversary activities, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Upcoming congressional oversight and budget debates could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$658,461Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a mere 3% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 11% by year-end, reflecting persistent hurdles despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium and Congress's December 2025 authorization of FY2026 funding for underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Preparations by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration continue without an announced detonation date, bolstered by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations that labs deem sufficient for arsenal maintenance. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head's warning to the U.S., Russia, and China against resumption highlights intensifying diplomatic pressure amid alleged adversary activities, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Upcoming congressional oversight and budget debates could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$658,461Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 3% chance of a U.S. nuclear test by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 11% by year-end, reflecting persistent hurdles despite President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium and Congress's December 2025 authorization of FY2026 funding for underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Preparations by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration continue without an announced detonation date, bolstered by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations that labs deem sufficient for arsenal maintenance. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head's warning to the U.S., Russia, and China against resumption highlights intensifying diplomatic pressure amid alleged adversary activities, with no major shifts in the past 30 days. Upcoming congressional oversight and budget debates could influence timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes