The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$666,780 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
2%
30 septembre 2026
5%
31 décembre 2026
9%
$666,780 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$40,037 Vol.
2%
30 septembre 2026
$6,655 Vol.
5%
31 décembre 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$666,780Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$666,780Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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