The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program to certify warhead safety and effectiveness. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume testing “on an equal basis” with China and Russia initially raised expectations, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized sub-critical experiments and non-nuclear activities rather than full-yield detonations. Recent NNSA work at the Nevada National Security Site has centered on chemical high-explosive tests to refine detection of low-yield or decoupled foreign tests, amid diplomatic pressure on Beijing over alleged 2020 activity. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, combined with ongoing verification focus and absence of any claimed U.S. explosive test, underpin trader consensus that near-term resolution remains unlikely absent major escalation or policy reversal.