The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments to maintain arsenal confidence. Recent statements from President Trump in late 2025, coupled with U.S. intelligence assessments alleging low-yield testing by China and Russia, have renewed debate over possible resumption to match adversary activities or demonstrate resolve. No full-yield explosive test has occurred, and administration clarifications have pointed toward non-explosive or subcritical work. Policy reviews, Senate budget actions on the National Nuclear Security Administration, and international calls for CTBT ratification continue to shape expectations around any near-term decision or timeline for a test.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$795,441 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
6%
$795,441 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,710 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments to maintain arsenal confidence. Recent statements from President Trump in late 2025, coupled with U.S. intelligence assessments alleging low-yield testing by China and Russia, have renewed debate over possible resumption to match adversary activities or demonstrate resolve. No full-yield explosive test has occurred, and administration clarifications have pointed toward non-explosive or subcritical work. Policy reviews, Senate budget actions on the National Nuclear Security Administration, and international calls for CTBT ratification continue to shape expectations around any near-term decision or timeline for a test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,441Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments to maintain arsenal confidence. Recent statements from President Trump in late 2025, coupled with U.S. intelligence assessments alleging low-yield testing by China and Russia, have renewed debate over possible resumption to match adversary activities or demonstrate resolve. No full-yield explosive test has occurred, and administration clarifications have pointed toward non-explosive or subcritical work. Policy reviews, Senate budget actions on the National Nuclear Security Administration, and international calls for CTBT ratification continue to shape expectations around any near-term decision or timeline for a test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,441Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments to maintain arsenal confidence. Recent statements from President Trump in late 2025, coupled with U.S. intelligence assessments alleging low-yield testing by China and Russia, have renewed debate over possible resumption to match adversary activities or demonstrate resolve. No full-yield explosive test has occurred, and administration clarifications have pointed toward non-explosive or subcritical work. Policy reviews, Senate budget actions on the National Nuclear Security Administration, and international calls for CTBT ratification continue to shape expectations around any near-term decision or timeline for a test.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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