The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program with subcritical experiments to certify warheads. Despite President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling intent to resume testing and a March 24, 2026, comment from a top official not ruling it out amid assessments tied to alleged Chinese activities, no preparations or announcements for an explosive test have materialized from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration. U.S. Strategic Command recently affirmed no technical need for yield-producing tests. With the market deadline approaching March 31, traders weigh diplomatic repercussions under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and lack of visible escalation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$584,459 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 mars 2026
<1%
$584,459 Vol.
31 mars 2026
$290,363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program with subcritical experiments to certify warheads. Despite President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling intent to resume testing and a March 24, 2026, comment from a top official not ruling it out amid assessments tied to alleged Chinese activities, no preparations or announcements for an explosive test have materialized from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration. U.S. Strategic Command recently affirmed no technical need for yield-producing tests. With the market deadline approaching March 31, traders weigh diplomatic repercussions under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and lack of visible escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program with subcritical experiments to certify warheads. Despite President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling intent to resume testing and a March 24, 2026, comment from a top official not ruling it out amid assessments tied to alleged Chinese activities, no preparations or announcements for an explosive test have materialized from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration. U.S. Strategic Command recently affirmed no technical need for yield-producing tests. With the market deadline approaching March 31, traders weigh diplomatic repercussions under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and lack of visible escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$584,459Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program with subcritical experiments to certify warheads. Despite President Trump's October 2025 statements signaling intent to resume testing and a March 24, 2026, comment from a top official not ruling it out amid assessments tied to alleged Chinese activities, no preparations or announcements for an explosive test have materialized from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration. U.S. Strategic Command recently affirmed no technical need for yield-producing tests. With the market deadline approaching March 31, traders weigh diplomatic repercussions under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and lack of visible escalation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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