Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 90-139 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, with 115-139 tweets leading at 38% implied probability and 90-114 close behind at 32%, reflecting his historical average of 30-50 daily posts amid fluctuating cultural and political spotlights. Recent developments, including post-election normalization after 2024's 100+ daily spikes during the Trump campaign, suggest a return to baseline activity without confirmed catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla events in that window. Competitive dynamics pit moderate-volume bets against slight overperformance expectations, hinging on Musk's unpredictable X engagement tied to real-time news cycles and meme-driven virality, keeping higher bins like 140-164 viable at 21% as tail risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour115-139 38%
90-114 33%
140-164 20.9%
65-89 3.6%
$1,059,691 Vol.
$1,059,691 Vol.
40-64
1%
65-89
4%
90-114
33%
115-139
38%
140-164
21%
165-189
3%
190-214
2%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
115-139 38%
90-114 33%
140-164 20.9%
65-89 3.6%
$1,059,691 Vol.
$1,059,691 Vol.
40-64
1%
65-89
4%
90-114
33%
115-139
38%
140-164
21%
165-189
3%
190-214
2%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 90-139 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, with 115-139 tweets leading at 38% implied probability and 90-114 close behind at 32%, reflecting his historical average of 30-50 daily posts amid fluctuating cultural and political spotlights. Recent developments, including post-election normalization after 2024's 100+ daily spikes during the Trump campaign, suggest a return to baseline activity without confirmed catalysts like SpaceX launches or Tesla events in that window. Competitive dynamics pit moderate-volume bets against slight overperformance expectations, hinging on Musk's unpredictable X engagement tied to real-time news cycles and meme-driven virality, keeping higher bins like 140-164 viable at 21% as tail risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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