Strong spring break travel demand has driven TSA checkpoint passenger screenings to weekend peaks exceeding 2.5 million daily early in the March 23-29 period, fueling trader optimism for totals around 18 million, yet midweek dips to 1.9-2.1 million have kept the 18-18.5m (42%) and 17.5-18m (36%) bins tightly contested. Current implied sums hover near 18.1 million based on released daily figures through March 28, reflecting robust U.S. air travel volumes amid school holidays, low flight cancellation rates under 1%, and favorable weather in key hubs. The race stays close due to variable regional spring break schedules and economic headwinds like elevated airfares; final March 29 data and any TSA revisions could push resolution toward higher buckets if Friday screenings top 2.2 million, aligning with prior-year peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour18-18.5m 42%
17.5-18m 36%
18.5-19m 20%
<17.5m 18%
$17,893 Vol.
$17,893 Vol.
<17.5m
18%
17.5-18m
36%
18-18.5m
42%
18.5-19m
20%
19-19.5m
16%
>19.5m
16%
18-18.5m 42%
17.5-18m 36%
18.5-19m 20%
<17.5m 18%
$17,893 Vol.
$17,893 Vol.
<17.5m
18%
17.5-18m
36%
18-18.5m
42%
18.5-19m
20%
19-19.5m
16%
>19.5m
16%
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from March 23, 2026 to March 29, 2026 by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong spring break travel demand has driven TSA checkpoint passenger screenings to weekend peaks exceeding 2.5 million daily early in the March 23-29 period, fueling trader optimism for totals around 18 million, yet midweek dips to 1.9-2.1 million have kept the 18-18.5m (42%) and 17.5-18m (36%) bins tightly contested. Current implied sums hover near 18.1 million based on released daily figures through March 28, reflecting robust U.S. air travel volumes amid school holidays, low flight cancellation rates under 1%, and favorable weather in key hubs. The race stays close due to variable regional spring break schedules and economic headwinds like elevated airfares; final March 29 data and any TSA revisions could push resolution toward higher buckets if Friday screenings top 2.2 million, aligning with prior-year peaks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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