Trader consensus on the NYC mayor's X posts from March 24-31, 2026, clusters tightly around 40% implied probabilities for mid-range bins like 20-79, reflecting deep uncertainty over the 2025 election winner who assumes office January 1. Incumbent Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment in September 2024 has eroded his polling to under 20% in Democratic primary surveys, elevating contenders like former Governor Andrew Cuomo (leading hypotheticals at 35-45%) and Comptroller Brad Lander, whose divergent social media styles—Adams averages 5-8 daily @NYCMayor updates—fuel volatility. Primary catalysts for separation include candidate announcements by March 2025 filing deadlines, June primary results, and November general election, alongside any post-inauguration event spikes in official communications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMaire de New York # posts 24 mars - 31 mars 2026 ?
Maire de New York # posts 24 mars - 31 mars 2026 ?
20-39 42%
<20 41%
60-79 41%
80-99 41%
<20
41%
20-39
42%
40-59
41%
60-79
41%
80-99
41%
100-119
41%
120-139
41%
140-159
38%
160-179
37%
180-199
39%
200+
38%
20-39 42%
<20 41%
60-79 41%
80-99 41%
<20
41%
20-39
42%
40-59
41%
60-79
41%
80-99
41%
100-119
41%
120-139
41%
140-159
38%
160-179
37%
180-199
39%
200+
38%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/NYCMayorResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/NYCMayorResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the NYC mayor's X posts from March 24-31, 2026, clusters tightly around 40% implied probabilities for mid-range bins like 20-79, reflecting deep uncertainty over the 2025 election winner who assumes office January 1. Incumbent Eric Adams' federal corruption indictment in September 2024 has eroded his polling to under 20% in Democratic primary surveys, elevating contenders like former Governor Andrew Cuomo (leading hypotheticals at 35-45%) and Comptroller Brad Lander, whose divergent social media styles—Adams averages 5-8 daily @NYCMayor updates—fuel volatility. Primary catalysts for separation include candidate announcements by March 2025 filing deadlines, June primary results, and November general election, alongside any post-inauguration event spikes in official communications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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