Andy Burnham leads the Makerfield by-election market at 73.5% because the 18 June vote was triggered specifically to enable the Greater Manchester mayor and former MP to contest the seat as Labour’s candidate after Josh Simons resigned. His established local profile and cross-party appeal in a constituency where Reform UK took nearly 32% in 2024 underpin trader pricing. Robert Kenyon, the Reform candidate, sits at 24.5% amid national polling strength for the party on cost-of-living and immigration concerns, yet recent constituency surveys and Burnham’s campaign launch have kept the gap wide. Other candidates remain at negligible levels consistent with historical by-election patterns in similar seats. The two-week timeline to polling leaves limited scope for late shifts unless major national events intervene.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMakerfield by-election Winner
Makerfield by-election Winner
Andy Burnham 74%
Robert Kenyon 25%
Rebecca Shepherd 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,108,158 Vol.
$2,108,158 Vol.
Andy Burnham
74%
Robert Kenyon
25%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Andy Burnham 74%
Robert Kenyon 25%
Rebecca Shepherd 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,108,158 Vol.
$2,108,158 Vol.
Andy Burnham
74%
Robert Kenyon
25%
Rebecca Shepherd
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Marché ouvert : May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Andy Burnham leads the Makerfield by-election market at 73.5% because the 18 June vote was triggered specifically to enable the Greater Manchester mayor and former MP to contest the seat as Labour’s candidate after Josh Simons resigned. His established local profile and cross-party appeal in a constituency where Reform UK took nearly 32% in 2024 underpin trader pricing. Robert Kenyon, the Reform candidate, sits at 24.5% amid national polling strength for the party on cost-of-living and immigration concerns, yet recent constituency surveys and Burnham’s campaign launch have kept the gap wide. Other candidates remain at negligible levels consistent with historical by-election patterns in similar seats. The two-week timeline to polling leaves limited scope for late shifts unless major national events intervene.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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