Ed Gallrein’s decisive primary victory over incumbent Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, produced an official margin of roughly 9.7 percentage points (54.9%–45.1%), aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward a Gallrein 9%+ outcome. Trump’s endorsement of the former Navy SEAL, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million and strong Gallrein performance in populous northern counties such as Boone, Kenton, and Campbell, shifted voter support decisively in the final weeks. Massie retained strength in his home base but could not offset turnout advantages elsewhere. With results certified and no active recount underway, traders assign near-certainty to the observed margin. Only an unprecedented reversal in official tallies or successful legal challenge altering more than 5,000 net votes could realistically move the outcome below 9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory
Gallrein 9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,609 Vol.
$192,609 Vol.
May 19, 2026
Gallrein 9%+
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
<1%
Gallrein <3%
<1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
Gallrein 9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,609 Vol.
$192,609 Vol.
May 19, 2026
Gallrein 9%+
$124,537 Vol.
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
$11,886 Vol.
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$7,628 Vol.
<1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
Massie <3%
$9,852 Vol.
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$18,217 Vol.
<1%
Massie 6%+
$13,866 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein’s decisive primary victory over incumbent Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, produced an official margin of roughly 9.7 percentage points (54.9%–45.1%), aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward a Gallrein 9%+ outcome. Trump’s endorsement of the former Navy SEAL, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million and strong Gallrein performance in populous northern counties such as Boone, Kenton, and Campbell, shifted voter support decisively in the final weeks. Massie retained strength in his home base but could not offset turnout advantages elsewhere. With results certified and no active recount underway, traders assign near-certainty to the observed margin. Only an unprecedented reversal in official tallies or successful legal challenge altering more than 5,000 net votes could realistically move the outcome below 9%.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Volume
$192,609End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein’s decisive primary victory over incumbent Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, produced an official margin of roughly 9.7 percentage points (54.9%–45.1%), aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward a Gallrein 9%+ outcome. Trump’s endorsement of the former Navy SEAL, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million and strong Gallrein performance in populous northern counties such as Boone, Kenton, and Campbell, shifted voter support decisively in the final weeks. Massie retained strength in his home base but could not offset turnout advantages elsewhere. With results certified and no active recount underway, traders assign near-certainty to the observed margin. Only an unprecedented reversal in official tallies or successful legal challenge altering more than 5,000 net votes could realistically move the outcome below 9%.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$192,609End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ed Gallrein’s decisive primary victory over incumbent Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District on May 19, 2026, produced an official margin of roughly 9.7 percentage points (54.9%–45.1%), aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward a Gallrein 9%+ outcome. Trump’s endorsement of the former Navy SEAL, combined with record outside spending exceeding $35 million and strong Gallrein performance in populous northern counties such as Boone, Kenton, and Campbell, shifted voter support decisively in the final weeks. Massie retained strength in his home base but could not offset turnout advantages elsewhere. With results certified and no active recount underway, traders assign near-certainty to the observed margin. Only an unprecedented reversal in official tallies or successful legal challenge altering more than 5,000 net votes could realistically move the outcome below 9%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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