Name: KY-04 Republican Primary Winner
Start: 2025-12-01T22:00:58.422991Z
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Nicole Lee Ethington

Robert Wells Jr.

Thomas Massie

Ed Gallrein

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Chip Roy be the Republican nominee for TX-21?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Brinker Harding be the Republican nominee for NE-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Joel Willett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Henry Cuellar be the Democratic nominee for TX-28?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Dominick Pangallo be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia.

If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 30, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 17, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from North Carolina.

If no 2026 North Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". This market includes any potential runoff election.

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the North Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Michael Whatley be the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate from Mississippi?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.

If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas.

If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Representative from New York’s 8th Congressional District.

If no 2026 New York 8th District Democratic House Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Minnesota.

If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Massie
$178 Vol.
74%
0123456789
0123456789
%

Ed Gallrein
$190 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

Nicole Lee Ethington
$78 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Robert Wells Jr.
$15 Vol.
3%

Market Context

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Rules

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Market Context

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

About

Related

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Thomas Massie$178 Vol.74%01234567890123456789%buy Yes75¢buy No28¢

Ed Gallrein$190 Vol.15%0123456789%buy Yes22.0¢buy No91.5¢

Nicole Lee Ethington$78 Vol.3%0123456789%buy Yes6.0¢buy No99.1¢

Robert Wells Jr.$15 Vol.3%buy Yes6.0¢buy No99.1¢

Market Context

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Rules

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

Market Context

KY-04 Republican Primary Winner

About

Related

Thomas Massie
$178 Vol.
74%
0123456789
0123456789
%

Ed Gallrein
$190 Vol.
15%
0123456789
%

Nicole Lee Ethington
$78 Vol.
3%
0123456789
%

Robert Wells Jr.
$15 Vol.
3%