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World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 73%

Paloma Valencia 18.8%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.5%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$1,690,477 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 73%

Paloma Valencia 18.8%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.5%

Luis Gilberto Murillo <1%

Polymarket

$1,690,477 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$52,024 Vol.

73%

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Paloma Valencia

$208,029 Vol.

19%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$467,132 Vol.

4%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$93,567 Vol.

1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$36,902 Vol.

1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$67,259 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$72,405 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$149,034 Vol.

<1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$49,747 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila

$235,744 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$33,766 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$26,558 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$21,531 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$22,576 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$51,770 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$38,996 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$26,935 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro of the Pacto Histórico to win Colombia's presidential first-round vote on May 31, with odds reflecting his commanding poll lead post-March 8 legislative elections and party consultations, where his coalition secured the largest Senate and House blocs despite no outright majority. Recent surveys, including a March 28 poll showing Cepeda at 37.5% versus Paloma Valencia's 19.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella's 20.2%, underscore his momentum from leftist voter turnout and consistent double-digit margins, positioning him as the plurality favorite amid a fragmented field. Valencia's center-right surge in the Centro Democrático consultation has narrowed the gap slightly, while Espriella's independent right-wing bid lags trader expectations; no candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, pointing to a likely runoff.

Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro of the Pacto Histórico to win Colombia's presidential first-round vote on May 31, with odds reflecting his commanding poll lead post-March 8 legislative elections and party consultations, where his coalition secured the largest Senate and House blocs despite no outright majority. Recent surveys, including a March 28 poll showing Cepeda at 37.5% versus Paloma Valencia's 19.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella's 20.2%, underscore his momentum from leftist voter turnout and consistent double-digit margins, positioning him as the plurality favorite amid a fragmented field. Valencia's center-right surge in the Centro Democrático consultation has narrowed the gap slightly, while Espriella's independent right-wing bid lags trader expectations; no candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, pointing to a likely runoff.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro of the Pacto Histórico to win Colombia's presidential first-round vote on May 31, with odds reflecting his commanding poll lead post-March 8 legislative elections and party consultations, where his coalition secured the largest Senate and House blocs despite no outright majority. Recent surveys, including a March 28 poll showing Cepeda at 37.5% versus Paloma Valencia's 19.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella's 20.2%, underscore his momentum from leftist voter turnout and consistent double-digit margins, positioning him as the plurality favorite amid a fragmented field. Valencia's center-right surge in the Centro Democrático consultation has narrowed the gap slightly, while Espriella's independent right-wing bid lags trader expectations; no candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, pointing to a likely runoff.

Trader consensus heavily favors Iván Cepeda Castro of the Pacto Histórico to win Colombia's presidential first-round vote on May 31, with odds reflecting his commanding poll lead post-March 8 legislative elections and party consultations, where his coalition secured the largest Senate and House blocs despite no outright majority. Recent surveys, including a March 28 poll showing Cepeda at 37.5% versus Paloma Valencia's 19.9% and Abelardo de la Espriella's 20.2%, underscore his momentum from leftist voter turnout and consistent double-digit margins, positioning him as the plurality favorite amid a fragmented field. Valencia's center-right surge in the Centro Democrático consultation has narrowed the gap slightly, while Espriella's independent right-wing bid lags trader expectations; no candidate nears the 50%+1 threshold for outright victory, pointing to a likely runoff.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

12%
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Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

87%
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Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

93%

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Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 73%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.